While Ballmer and Yang Fiddle, Web 2.0 Hotties Burn…

Who’ll get Digg? (Odds-on favorite and sources tell me much sooner than later: Google.)
And who might make a bid for Slide, RockYou, LinkedIn, Meebo or imeem? (It might be smart for News Corp. [NWS] to double down in the social- networking space, if it can’t trade MySpace for a piece of Yahoo.)
And what about a plethora of really useful and interesting small start-ups all over Silicon Valley and elsewhere that are going to have to eventually find safe harbors when this Web 2.0 thing cools off, as it inevitably will. (AOL [TWX], Amazon [AMZN], eBay [EBAY] and, again, Google [GOOG], are natural choices.)
But not Microsoft (MSFT) or Yahoo (YHOO) if they persist in competing in this endless geek cage-match for too long.
Yesterday, more blustering bluster from Microsoft when it said, during its quarterly conference call, that it would not pay more to acquire Yahoo and might very well walk away from the deal.
My advice: Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer should stop talking and start walking. If not, pay up and finish the deal.
And Yahoo’s CEO Jerry Yang should cooperate and stop its now-tiresome posturing (we get it, it’s worth more!).
Why?
Well, while the pair remained locked in mortal combat, a status that will continue if they actually do manage to unite and have to then conduct a doubtlessly slow-moving merger, their main rival Google and others are the likeliest to benefit every day this drags on.
Right after Microsoft made its unsolicited for Yahoo in February and it was quickly rebuffed, BoomTown suggested in a post that the software giant move on quickly and use its tens of billions to buy up the choicest and most innovative companies in the digital space.
What I wrote then bears repeating:
And what are the other options Microsoft might have that are actually better than scooping up Yahoo, especially to serve its Captain-Ahab obsession with harpooning the Great White Whale of Google?
If that is the actual goal, then many point out that a Yahoo win does not really frighten Google all that much, since the search giant has done just fine competing against both already.
In addition, many noted that a union of the pair, which would distract both Yahoo and Microsoft, might not be the magic bullet needed to fell Google from its high perch. And then what?
One idea I have heard, for example, was that Microsoft take its $44.6 billion in cash and stock it plans on spending on Yahoo and go on a shopping spree of the Web 2.0 companies all around Silicon Valley and all over.
And not just a few–lots and lots of them. And, more than one person suggested, it should start with Facebook, even at that wacky $15 billion valuation that Microsoft itself validated when it invested $240 million in the social-networking site recently.
“So what if it is only worth $10 billion or even less,” said one person. “They could lose a lot more on the risk of buying Yahoo.”
With the $30 billion left over, it could be like Christmas in July for the geeks and venture firms of Silicon Valley. But Microsoft could scoop up a lot of good stuff, even if prices are high.
Here’s a list: LinkedIn. Digg. Flixster. Slide or RockYou. Veoh. WordPress. Sphere. Sugar. Some international stuff. And more.
Then, some noted, Microsoft would have to give massive financial incentives to those entrepreneurs to stay and thrive. Most importantly, it would have to keep its Redmond hands from interfering.
Now that would send shivers up the spine of [Google's] Larry and Sergey.”
It still would. So maybe, as it has threatened yesterday, Microsoft should run and not walk.
Please see this disclosure related to me and Google.
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Comments
Interesting points on the other web 2.0 hotties – specially Digg. I am surprised it hasn’t been lapped up already.
Posted by Technology Watcher at April 25th, 2008 at 4:28 am-D
http://techwatch.reviewk.com/
D:
It will be and soon.
Posted by Kara Swisher at April 25th, 2008 at 6:17 amWhy is it OK for you to spread an acquisition rumor but you criticize TechCrunch for doing same?
Posted by Pete Spande at April 25th, 2008 at 9:56 amI can hardly wait for the case of indi-GEST-ion that MS will get from swallowing Yahoo, but the results would/will be the same if they swallowed the companies you name.
Microsoft is like a very large python snake. Yahoo is like a Sears Kenmore deluxe washer dryer combo.
The companies you name are like that washer-dryer taken apart down to the major component level.
The issue isn’t the size of the things swallowed, its what they are made of. In the case of the Kenmore, mostly steel. In the case of Yahoo and those smaller companies, mostly Unix.
Either way, MS (the python) will choke if not die.
This has been Mac Beach, reporting from the museum of bad analogies.
Posted by Mac Beach at April 25th, 2008 at 11:05 amPete:
I criticized that report you refer to in your comment that appeared a while back on TechCrunch, because it was incorrect. As TechCrunch asserted, Google and Microsoft were not in some elaborate bidding war for the company at an incredible price and about to be sold. I think they tried to get the story right and their sources were wrong and Digg CEO Jay Adelson himself said it was untrue.
Just because someone says a company is in play, even if it might be interested in selling, and then gets all the details and circumstances and facts wrong at the time, does not make the report correct in the first place.
And, even when I criticized the story, I did note either Google or MSFT were good acquirer candidates for Digg, and have said that several times in posts about it and several other Web companies. But that was clearly written as opinion and not based on reporting.
I have been following the story since as I did think Digg was a likely acquisition candidate at some point in its life and via good sources, and now I believe the talks with Google to be genuine and more serious.
Posted by Kara Swisher at April 25th, 2008 at 8:35 pm