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Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Microsoft’s Project Granola–Facebook Tastier Than Yahoo?

granola

Project Granola?

Apparently, that’s the jokey nickname that’s been given by some in the company to Microsoft’s (MSFT) new online strategy, in the wake of its failed efforts to acquire Yahoo (YHOO) that ended in a big heap of mess this past weekend.

Now, sources tell BoomTown, it is all about “organic”–hence the image of a healthy handful of granola (except for the fact that, in my experience, nobody really likes granola after eating it as much as they think will before).

In any case, it is a word Microsoft folks have been slipping into the conversations with BoomTown over the past few days, so much so that I have started to feel like I was talking to execs from Whole Foods.

Now Microsoft’s greenness has gone public.

Case in point: Brian Hall, Windows Live General Manager, who trotted out the organic word in front of Merrill Lynch analysts yesterday, as reported by CNET’s Ina Fried, saying: “We’ve withdrawn the offer and moved on, and now are focused on how we grow as fast as possible organically.”

But what does organic mean exactly?

Two things, it seems.

First, stepping up spending on marketing, technology and research to try to find ways to differentiate from Google (GOOG) and get into the No. 2 spot now held by Yahoo.

Of course, that plan has not worked out so well as yet for the software giant, with Microsoft spending billions of dollars with no profits and little gain in online search or ad market share, while its archrival Google keeps growing stronger.

Even so, while in Korea today, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates backed Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer’s do-it-yourself path and his move to walk away from Yahoo.

“The key decisions on that will be made by Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, who took a look at Yahoo and decided that, on our own, he likes the stuff that we’re doing,” said Gates.

Gates also added what amounts to the second option for Microsoft. “I wouldn’t rule out some partnerships, but we don’t have anything imminent there,” he said.

While a return to Yahoo is a possibility, in fact, buying up Web 2.0 stars is likely to be a bigger focus of the company.

“Yahoo can twist,” said one source. “Microsoft has lots and lots of other options.”

According to sources close to the company, for example, Microsoft’s bankers had been putting out subtle signals to Facebook to see if it would be open to a full buyout.

Microsoft already invested $240 million in the hot social-networking site, an investment that gave Facebook its kooky $15 billion valuation.

And its execs have long told Facebook execs they wouldn’t mind a bigger bite–um, like all of it.

“We just wanted to gauge their interest, more than any real effort,” said another source, who expects Facebook to stick to its longish path to an eventual IPO.

But, as is no secret, Microsoft has selections all over Silicon Valley to help it improve its Internet chances.

Those would include buying bigger vertical sites in strong categories like autos or jobs or finance, and also scooping up smaller but fast-growing socially oriented sites like Digg, Meebo, Yelp or focusing on ad plays like Spot Runner (which just got another big dollop of funding).

There might even be some sense in spinning some of these and all Microsoft Web units off into a separate Internet company, which would be another way of integrating even bigger deals for properties like Time Warner’s (TWX) AOL or News Corp.’s (NWS) MySpace (which are longer shots, I think).

In a post I did in February right after Yahoo rebuffed Microsoft for the first time, I suggested such a course for the company.

As I wrote:

Here’s a list: LinkedIn. Digg. Flixster. Slide or RockYou. Veoh. WordPress. Sphere. Sugar. Some international stuff. And more.

Then, some noted, Microsoft would have to give massive financial incentives to those entrepreneurs to stay and thrive. Most importantly, it would have to keep its Redmond hands from interfering.

Now that would send shivers up the spine of Larry and Sergey.”

And that, most of all, would be more like icing on the cake for Microsoft and be much more tasty than a bowl full of granola.

And, as Martha Stewart says: It’s a good thing.

icingcake

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

A History Lesson for Jerry Yang: It Sticks in My Craw(ford)

gordoncrawford

Yesterday, the powerful portfolio manager at Yahoo’s largest investor, Gordon Crawford (pictured here) of Capital Research Global Investors, a division of Capital Research & Management Co., made some very public and very harsh remarks directed at Yahoo (YHOO) CEO Jerry Yang for blowing the Microsoft (MSFT) deal.

All told, between two funds, Capital Research owns 16% of Yahoo. The fund run by Crawford, a legendary money manager and media power broker, holds 6% of that total. No surprise, then, that those funds took a big hit yesterday after the Microsoft takeover bid for Yahoo collapsed.

yangyahoo

So a lot of people paid attention yesterday when Crawford, in a high-profile interview with The Wall Street Journal, laid into Yang (pictured here) in such an in-your-face manner.

Said Crawford: “I’m extremely disappointed in Jerry Yang. I think he overplayed a weak hand.”

Crawford was fuming even more to the New York Times yesterday:

“I am extremely angry at Jerry Yang and at the so-called independent board. … I’m hoping that there is such an outpouring of outrage that the board is embarrassed into revisiting this thing, but I’m not optimistic about that.”

Uh-oh, because BoomTown has seen this story before.

stevecase

It was back in 2002 and the exec under Crawford’s withering gaze then was former AOL Time Warner (TWX) Chairman Steve Case (pictured here).

Jerry Yang might want to take notes, as the situations are a little too familiar to ignore.

Thus, here is a longish excerpt from my book, “There Must Be a Pony In Here Somewhere,” which shows just how active and relentless Crawford can be as an investor when he gets irked by execs who disappoint him:

pony

Gordon Crawford was still very, very angry.

Still piqued over the deteriorating situation at AOL Time Warner, he was now annoyed at himself too.

After laying into AOL Time Warner CFO Wayne Pace in early 2002 over what he perceived was dissembling by COO Bob Pittman and former CFO Mike Kelly in 2001, the powerful media investor at Capital Research and Management had decided over the spring to continue investing in the company.

He had visited the online unit and been heartened that executives were hard at work on a solution, even as the other divisions of the company were excelling and new CEO Dick Parsons had boosted morale.

Crawford calculated that the stock price had fallen well below the potential breakup value of the various parts of the company, and he had decided the stock of AOL Time Warner was being beaten down unnecessarily.

It now seemed a good buy. After all, how much worse could things get?

A lot, actually, as the online unit continued its downward spiral with new accounting allegations revealed over the summer and more signs that both subscriber numbers and ad revenue were in trouble.

Crawford would later kick himself for ignoring the signs he had flagged earlier.

“When there was one cockroach, one should always assume there are others,” said Crawford to me in 2003. “It was a stupid mistake.”

And Crawford wasn’t going to make another one, especially after he began hearing more and more angry voices from his network of sources across the divisions of AOL Time Warner.

Almost all the complaints were centered on one person: Steve Case.

After Levin and Pittman had left, it seemed, Case had begun to reassert himself at the company, visiting various divisions and doling out guidance on how to better achieve synergies.

It was advice that few divisional executives welcomed, especially coming from the man they held most responsible for the huge declines in the company fortunes, and who was also a constant reminder of how Time Warner had been snookered.

“To have to sit there and listen to him was unbearable for them,” said Crawford. “His continued presence was taking a terrible toll on morale.”

As the protests mounted, Crawford took it upon himself to gather key allies among the big shareholders–beginning with Ted Turner, who had now soured on Case much in the same way he had on Levin.

Crawford then contacted Malone, who had wanted to stay neutral but agreed to hear them out in an August visit to Denver. There, Crawford and Turner made their argument to Malone.

“Their view was that it was a disaster and no one could stand to have Case around,” recalled Malone. “The numbers lost were just too big, so he had to go.”

Lingering in the background, noted Malone, was the sense that Case had outsmarted everyone at Time Warner, a fact that further grated on them.

Since Crawford was headed east to New York for a series of meetings at various media concerns, including AOL Time Warner, the trio decided that he would be the one to deliver the news that Case should go.

He first met with Dick Parsons and Wayne Pace on on other topics at the company’s Rockefeller Center headquarters. During the meeting, Case joined the group and invited Crawford to his office when he was done for a private talk.

Case might have reconsidered the invitation when he heard Crawford’s definitive message: Resign.

Outlining his feedback from employees, Crawford explained that neither he nor other major shareholders thought Case could be an effective chairman any longer.

Case, sources familiar with the conversation said, was shocked by Crawford’s frank assessment and began immediately to argue with him.

Crawford was stunned when Case told him AOL was fine before the merger announcement and that he had no responsibility at the company after the deal was done.

It was not his fault that the economy had tanked. It was not his fault that both Levin and Pittman had proved to be unsuccessful leaders. It was not his fault that the Internet boom had turned to bust.

Case told Crawford he was not leaving.

The meeting ended with Crawford deeply troubled over Case’s finger pointing at everyone but himself, and the casting of himself as victim.

The gall of it rankled the longtime investor, who expected people to take responsibility for their errors. Yet Case hadn’t made even a slight effort at any kind of apology, claiming he either was not in control or not responsible.

What Crawford couldn’t grasp was that Case had no intention of saying he was sorry when he was not. To Case, offering a mea culpa would have been dishonest.

In addition, he felt it was more useful to figure out what to do next than wallow in blame. This was vintage Case, a behavior of moving on and compartmentalizing failure that had served him well for so long.

Case felt he had little authority to do anything, but a lot of responsibility to get it right.

Case called Crawford soon after he returned to his California office. “How can we patch things up,” asked Case.

But Crawford’s message was the same: “We can’t.”

Still, in the same conversation, Case asked Crawford to discuss the situation further in person when he’d be in Los Angeles on a visit to Warner Bros. in September.

He and Crawford, along with AOL’s Donn Davis and Capital Research and Management’s David Siminoff, decided to have lunch at a private executive dining room at the film studio in Burbank.

Case was nervous as they sat down, and he quickly said that he wanted to find a way to return to a productive relationship with Crawford.

“What do I have to do to become friends again?” Case joked.

He noted that he cared deeply about AOL Time Warner and wanted to rebuild value.

But then he again asserted that the blame for the failed merger was not his, since he wasn’t the one running the show at either AOL or AOL Time Warner.

To Case, this made sense–there were a lot of mistakes to go around, but all that mattered was where the company was now and what it should do to fix matters.

Case had no idea how badly he had misread Crawford, who wanted neither a friend nor excuses about leadership deficiencies nor lessons about the here and now.

Crawford understood that executives made mistakes, and he even thought it was OK to miss numbers—as long as you had the guts to admit that it was your fault and you didn’t point fingers.

Crawford told Case that he didn’t hate him and didn’t want to be accused of going behind Case’s back to get what he wanted as a major investor, as he began to talk to AOL Time Warner board members and shareholders about his concerns.

Crawford didn’t have a whole lot to add to what he had previously said.

And that was: Resign.

Case didn’t have much to add to his prior response, either: He would not.

…Crawford had been calling major investors since the late summer. Already, Crawford had Turner, Malone and many others on his side, including some AOL Time Warner board members.

As 2003 dawned, he was not going away in his quest to unseat Case and he probably held sway of at least one-third of AOL Time Warner shareholders.

“Case was an irritant, especially in a managerial role,” said Crawford. “He hurt the esprit de corps–you can’t be the general when your troops want to shoot you in the back.”

Another person close to Crawford offered a more descriptive take on the media investor’s motivations.

“He did not do it to embarrass Steve,” said this person. “Steve was just a festering boil at AOL that needed to be cauterized and removed.”

Note: Case resigned on Jan. 12, 2003.

Monday, May 5, 2008

MSFT, YHOO and GOOG: All You Need to Know in (Not So) Pretty Pictures

A stark visual of the situation–courtesy of The Wall Street Journal–with regard to the competitive Internet advertising and stock situation.

These two charts look at the performance of the major players–Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo (YHOO) and Google (GOOG) (and AOL [TWX] in the ad chart)–from 2004 to 2008.

What more can we say?

So we won’t.

adscene

webstocks

Also, here’s a link to a video of an appearance I made on ABC News last night about the danger of Google getting too powerful. (Naughty ABC does not allow embedding; here also is the text post.)

Please see this disclosure related to me and Google.

Saturday, May 3, 2008

MicroHoo: BoomTown’s Favorite Email Haiku Analysis

haiku

BoomTown gets a lot of emails from Web players, big and small, commenting or, more typically, griping on whatever tech topic is hot that day.

And yesterday, after Microsoft (MSFT) abandoned its takeover bid for Yahoo (YHOO), it was like Christmas in July–our mailbox was packed.

But one stood out above all, from a person who shall remain nameless. This person has been around the block so much, he/she could be an Internet beat cop.

Like some Web 2.0 haiku combined with David Mamet-like dialogue, it encapsulates the situation going forward better than I ever could.

(By the way, for those needing a key: YHOO and Y is Yahoo; NWS is News Corp.; FIM is Fox Interactive Media, a division of News Corp.; GOOG is Google; MSFT is Microsoft; Jerry is Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang.)

Here’s the note:

Big drop in stock Monday (yhoo)
Simultaneous negotiations between y+nws, y+aol, y+goog
NWS+MSFT (nws trying to punt FIM to someone)
MSFT+Facebook

Then:
Y gets deal w/someone and msft comes back with an alternative.
That’s if Jerry survives the onslaught.”

BREAKING: MICROSOFT WALKS

tantrum

After a months-long standoff, Microsoft (MSFT) has abandoned its bid for Yahoo (YHOO), people involved in the discussions said today.

Microsoft confirmed to BoomTown that talks between the two companies, which have been taking place all week, collapsed Saturday when they could not agree on a price.

According to sources close to Microsoft, the talks broke down this afternoon after a face-to-face meeting in the Seattle area that included Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, Kevin Johnson, president of Microsoft’s Platforms & Services Division and Yahoo Co-Founders Jerry Yang and David Filo.

According to sources, Microsoft offered $33 a share, and Yahoo countered with $37 a share. The talks went nowhere from there.

Microsoft was also concerned with the lack of friendly integration and other major strategic problems, including the email monopoly that would arise from the merger of the two companies, as well as any outsourcing ad deal Yahoo might sign with Microsoft archrival Google (GOOG) before Microsoft completed an acquisition.

In addition, Microsoft sources said, Yahoo requested other unspecified costs that Microsoft was unwilling to accept.

As BoomTown has written recently, there have been ongoing meetings between the two companies recently in a bid to avoid a nasty takeover battle.

According to sources close to Microsoft, they include a meeting on April 15 in Portland, Ore. (as BoomTown said here), another by phone on April 18 and a meeting that included Ballmer and Yang in California on April 30.

At several points during the last few weeks, Yahoo execs had asked for over $40 a share to consummate the deal, a price Microsoft rejected. Yahoo’s Yang subsequently called Ballmer with the lower $37 price, which was discussed today.

In a letter to Jerry Yang, Steve Ballmer said that Microsoft will not move forward with a proxy fight and will instead pursue a more “organic” strategy in the online advertising market.

…It is clear to me that it is not sensible for Microsoft to take our offer directly to your shareholders. This approach would necessarily involve a protracted proxy contest and eventually an exchange offer. Our discussions with you have led us to conclude that, in the interim, you would take steps that would make Yahoo undesirable as an acquisition for Microsoft.”

A deal with Google is what Ballmer is specifically referring to in his last sentence.

That is not to say that Microsoft might not circle back and again attempt to acquire Yahoo at some point in the future, especially if the company’s stock tanks on Monday, as many expect it will.

That could be a problem for Yahoo in its quest to remain independent.

The options for Yahoo include a partnership with AOL (TWX) or News Corp. (NWS), an outsourcing deal with Google–which may present other antitrust problems–or actually improving its business.

That’s the one thing, of course, that’s been a problem for Yahoo managers and what landed them in this mess in the first place.

MicroHoo: Hasta La Vista, Hotmail?

hastalavista

Yesterday, BoomTown wrote a piece about Yahoo’s worries about the scrutiny that the monopolistic combination of Yahoo Mail and Microsoft’s Hotmail would get if it merged with the software giant.

The issue–which has not gotten a lot of attention–is actually a major sticking point in the price negotiations going on this weekend between the companies, as Yahoo (YHOO) seeks solid downside protection, if the deal becomes mired in approval issues by governmental authorities due to email and instant messaging dominance on the Web.

But Microsoft (MSFT) does not want to pay more, of course. And so the legions of minions under increasingly-under-pressure–translation: more yelling than ever this week–CEO Steve Ballmer are hard at work this weekend on all-nighters to solve the problem, said several sources.

One solution is to spin off all the communications assets, said sources, into a separate company. In that case, the two brands would remain, so as not to inconvenience consumers, although all the back-end technologies to run the services would be merged.

The more drastic step is for Microsoft sell Hotmail to a third party, especially given that Yahoo Mail is considered a stronger brand. Hotmail has already been in the midst of a transition, including a recent name change to Windows Live Hotmail.

Microsoft’s mail offerings now include Hotmail and also Windows Live Mail. The latter offering would presumably remain at the merged company with its @live.com address.

But Hotmail is the candidate to be sold off (with the requisite marketing to try to port its users over to @live.com first).

And potential buyers? Well, not Google (GOOG), but there are many, including AOL (TWX), Comcast (CMCSA) and AT&T (T), as well as IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI). As to price, that’s unclear, but it could be in the billions of dollars.

That’s another plus for Microsoft, which will obviously have to fork over more money if it wants to acquire Yahoo.

And, it is also priceless if Microsoft can minimize government interference in the deal, most especially any antitrust investigations related to its powerful email assets.

That must be a worry, since Microsoft and Yahoo completely dominate all email on the Internet. According to the most recent comScore (SCOR) figures, for example, Yahoo has 256 million users, while Microsoft has 255 million.

Google’s Gmail is a distant third with about 92 million users and AOL has about half that at 49 million.

The same domination is true in the instant messaging market, with Microsoft and Yahoo holding an 80% to 90% market share together.

Please see this disclosure related to me and Google.

Friday, May 2, 2008

MicroHoo: Mail Monopoly Part of Yahoo’s Price Holdout

yahoomailhotmail

Let’s move this back-and-forth- wrangling aspect of the story forward and get to the real issues in the Yahoo-Microsoft takeover battle, shall we?

So why is Yahoo’s board holding out for a higher price than Microsoft wants to offer to raise it?

From numerous reports, Microsoft (MSFT) seems willing to go to $33 a share, up from its original $31, while Yahoo (YHOO) and its shareholders are looking for from $35 to $37.

Are they simply looking for a bigger payday? Do they believe it is worth more, in spite of recent mismanagement? Do they want to save face, given the Internet company once had a $41 offer from the software giant? Is this just a big game of digital chicken?

Yes. Yes. Yes. And definitely.

But, according to sources close to Yahoo, one of the more important reasons Yahoo wants a higher price has a lot to do with worries about the domination of the email and communications market if a merger with Microsoft took place and the threat of regulatory action that would force the companies to divest those assets.

Sources said that Yahoo wants a large cushion in case the government finds the combination of Yahoo Mail and Hotmail too much.

It is.

That’s because Microsoft and Yahoo completely dominate all mail on the Internet. According to the most recent comScore (SCOR) figures, for example, Yahoo has 256 million users, while Microsoft has 255 million.

Google’s (GOOG) Gmail is a distant third with about 92 million users and AOL (TWX)–which kind of started off the whole email craze among consumers–has about half that at 49 million.

The same is true in the instant messaging market, with Microsoft and Yahoo holding an 80% to 90% market share together.

Calling David Boies! It all smells like antitrust investigation to me!

A high-ranking Yahoo source agrees. “We need a lot of reason to do the deal, because it could be very bumpy once we agree,” said the source. “How damaged would Yahoo be if it did not go through, or if important pieces of Yahoo had to be separated from the company?”

Some close to the company, though, would prefer a spinoff of its powerful communications products and services, in the case of a Yahoo-Microsoft union. “We could be the Google of communications,” said one source.

Of course, Google does not want this to happen. In a recent CNBC interview, Google CEO Eric Schmidt signaled the search giant’s intentions related to this thorny communications domination with a loaded quote:

“If they go ahead and the merger’s ultimately successful, it would be possible for Microsoft to integrate some of the properties and essentially eliminate consumer choice, particularly in electronic mail, instant messaging, the things where they have 80% or 90% market share, and that’s a sweet spot for Microsoft in its ability to eliminate choice.”

And, in fact, Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang and Chairman Roy Bostock raised the issue in a letter on April 7 to Microsoft, rejecting Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer’s letter threatening to go hostile if talks did not proceed.

The Yahoo leaders wrote:

“As to antitrust, we have discussed with you our concerns. Any transaction between us would result in a thorough regulatory review in multiple jurisdictions. As a follow-up to a recent meeting among our respective legal advisers we had on this topic, and at your request, we provided to you on March 28 a list of additional information we would need to further our understanding of the regulatory issues associated with any transaction. To date, you have still not provided any of the requested information.”

According to one source, the antitrust concern that was not named was related entirely to email and instant messaging.

“Bring together our content and search is not an issue,” said the source. “But mail is a real problem.”

Please see this disclosure related to me and Google.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Kara Visits EconSM (and Lives Large With Jason Calacanis)!

Yesterday, I traveled to Los Angeles for paidContent’s second Economics of Social Media conference, which opened last night and is being held all day today at the Skirball Cultural Center.

This morning, I am interviewing Steve Wadsworth, who helms Walt Disney’s (DIS) Internet businesses.

And after sating myself with as much Club Penguin info as possible, I will be sitting rapt in the front row, as folks like Yahoo’s (YHOO) Jeff Weiner, Bebo’s Joanna Shields and AOL’s (TWX) Ron Grant talk about how social media is going to finally make money.

BoomTown is on a vision quest to answer that question in the coming year, so we are kicking entrepreneurs and taking names!

Here’s a short video I did on the opening night, including talking to paidContent’s Staci Kramer and Seth Goldstein of Social Media.

But, first, it starts with a tour of my temporary L.A. abode at the home of Mahalo’s Jason Calacanis:

Thursday, April 24, 2008

All Hail, Smithers and Burns!

Valleywag got a hold of a sticker (see below) that Bebo employees are passing around in anticipation of the close of the purchase of the third-ranked social-networking site by AOL for $850 million in cash.

The motto: “I, for one, welcome our new AOL overlords.”

Why shouldn’t they? As BoomTown reported, every Bebo employee has had their previously granted stock options accelerated and fully vested under terms of the deal.

This is typical in acquisitions by the Time Warner (TWX) online subsidiary, since it cannot offer enough of its moribund old media stock.

burnsandsmithers

Unfortunately, those kind of deal terms don’t make for the kind of environment that encourages already jumpy entrepreneurs to stay. In fact, it kind of gives them a free pass to leave.

Still, it is nice to see Bebo minions celebrating their new bosses, including AOL CEO Randy Falco and President Ron Grant, who helmed the Bebo deal.

But to clarify for Bebo staff: Falco and Grant’s nickname at AOL is Smithers and Burns, that lovable pair from “The Simpsons,” and not overlords.

It goes without saying that further errors like this will not be tolerated.

overlords

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Twitter Down! Scoble’s Knickers in Knots!

aoloutage

OK, I like Twitter a lot, but what is up with all this tech news coverage of its outages?

With the Twitter service being glitchy all weekend, for example, the jump-to-the-next-big-thing champ Robert Scoble wrote another piece yesterday smacking his old amour and praising his new love: FriendFeed.

You know, the new pretty young thing in Silicon Valley (ex-Googlers involved make it hotter still!).

You don’t know?

Neither does most of the human race, in truth, which is just getting around to noticing Facebook and maybe, just maybe, figuring out how to properly use a SuperPoke (my advice: never ever!).

And, while Twitter is amazing in many ways, its tech glitches don’t deserve this level of emergency alarms.

But that has not stopped the echo chamber of Silicon Valley from making a lot of really noisy noise about the indignity of it all.

Isn’t there a recent Sarah Lacy interview with some random Web 2.0 player they could egregiously overreact to instead?

In a weird way, though, this reminds me of the outrage when AOL (TWX) went down for 19 hours in August of 1996. (To date myself, I was actually at AOL HQ in Virginia at that very time with CEO Steve Case, working on my first book.)

At the time, AOL’s 6.3 million users had their first collective digital nervous breakdown and the outage resulted in national headlines–as well as later governmental investigations–across the nation.

“If this (outage) is a sign that AOL can’t handle its growth, that’s a very bad message for the professionals that use it,” Gary Arlen, president of Arlen Communications, said ominously to CNN at the time.

Now, 6.3 million users over a decade ago in today’s terms is a lot more in comparison to Twitter’s current users.

But the difference: Today, one single person like Scoble can tweet louder than millions can complain and it sounds like it is exactly the same thing.

Friday, April 18, 2008

MicroHoo: Investors Standing By!

postal

BoomTown feels like a digital postal carrier today, delivering a small message each for Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Steve Ballmer and Yahoo (YHOO) CEO Jerry Yang from some of your bigger shareholders–some of whom own you both, in fact, and with whom we like to check in with from time to time to gauge their mood:

Steve: Greetings! Well, not greetings, exactly, since many of us are still really annoyed by the mean letter you sent to Yahoo two weekends ago.

Actually, we would not have minded a mean letter directed solely at Yang and the board.

In fact, if you had just focused on Yahoo’s lack of cooperation and your frustration in wanting to start negotiating and reiterated how valuable Yahoo was to you, that would have given us cover to phone up Yahoo and complain about inaction.

kungfupanda

Instead, you threatened a price drop, which is like delivering a Kung Fu Panda blow right to the collective windpipe of big shareholders and makes it impossible for us to do anything but complain about Microsoft.

Which is precisely what Legg Mason’s Bill Miller did like clockwork, of course.

“The problem is Microsoft blundered with the letter this weekend,” Miller said flatly in an interview in The Wall Street Journal. “Telling the shareholders you’re going to take something away from them is not a way to get their support.”

So, now to assuage us, you probably have to raise the price. A poll of those BoomTown talked to said $2 more would do it and $3 would be a clincher.

Our advice: Lob a call into Miller and also Capital Research & Management and all the other big owners of Yahoo shares and do a little sweet-talking.

Dear Jerry:

Salutations! Well, not salutations, exactly, since many of us are perplexed at what exactly is the plan.

OK, we like all the activity of late, as it is keeping the pressure on Microsoft. But we are deeply dubious of the efficacy of all the various plans.

While we would grudgingly accept a union with AOL, with an investment from Time Warner (TWX) and even a stock buyback, we are nervous that it could be a disaster.
casepittman

Most of all, there is the question of leadership and who would run this obviously hard-to-manage organization. We are not so sure that anyone in either team is up for it, and we just cannot imagine making that call to Steve Case and Bob Pittman to reassemble the old band.

And, while we love the idea of Google adding $1 billion in cash flow to the bottom line via an outsourcing deal to take over search-ad monetization, it’s a risky move fraught with regulatory questions, potential legal quagmire and increased aggression from Microsoft.

In fact, given how clear the Microsoft option is, especially if the price goes up or it switches to an all-cash deal, we still maintain that the most likely outcome is that we will support a richer Microsoft bid, since it presents us with the most clarity.

Or, as Fergie sings in her delicious “Big Girls Don’t Cry”: “Clarity, Peace, Serenity.”

So whatever happens, remember that big companies don’t cry either.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the video:

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

MicroHoo: Cash Is King?

cash

So why hasn’t Microsoft (MSFT) raised the $31-a-share price of the bid it has made for Yahoo (YHOO) yet?

I have been pondering this question recently, as the Yahoo- Microsoft deal sits in limbo, awaiting the results of Yahoo’s earnings next week and the progress of “authorized” talks between the pair.

One might call it a moment of calm before what could be a very nasty storm, if the situation moves onto a proxy fight. But if I had to bet now, while I am assuming it won’t drop the price, I also don’t think Microsoft needs to up the ante at this point.

Why?

First, while AOL sources tell me they thought it was a done deal last week, which the company apparently expected to be approved at Yahoo’s board meeting, even if Yahoo does agree to buy the Time Warner (TWX) unit, I expect Microsoft to wage a proxy fight even–especially!–in the event of a Yahoo-AOL union.

And I don’t think that even if the results of Yahoo’s two-week search-ad deal with Google (GOOG) are spectacular–here’s a good bet: They are sure to be–it will not necessarily open the software giant’s wallet more.

With Google’s dominance of the search market, I am not too sure Microsoft–as deeply and weirdly paranoid as its execs are of Google–thinks it will be too tough to mire, if not scuttle, such a partnership in a deep regulatory morass.

A better scenario? Microsoft should wait until the last possible moment and then convert the deal to all-cash, which would keep the price at $31 a share in real terms, since the current bid’s value has been depressed by Microsoft’s lagging stock price.

After all, didn’t Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang say that’s one of things he wanted in his most recent letter to Microsoft, after it threatened to go hostile.

Yang wrote: “To be clear, this includes a transaction with Microsoft if it represents a price that fully recognizes the value of Yahoo on a standalone basis and to Microsoft, is superior to our other alternatives, and provides certainty of value and certainty of closing.”

And cash does provide that certainty of value and certainty of closing–probably a smaller price for cash-gushing Microsoft to pay to end this more quickly.

MicroHoo: History Lesson No. 1– Time Warner Tries to Buy Yahoo

While we are waiting for the season finale of the Microsoft-AOL-Yahoo takeover–too bad we can’t blame the writers’ strike for the lugubrious pace of this deal–BoomTown will take you back in time to equally edge-of-your-seat times in Internet history in a series of surprisingly familiar stories.

Eerily familiar, in fact!

As you might imagine, while everyone is caught up in the current merger mania, there were a lot of previous hot-and-bothered moments now lost in the mists of time.

Did you know, for example, that AOL’s Ted Leonsis once made a $2 million bid for Yahoo (YHOO), early on? “Since there were two of them,” said Leonis to me once, referring to Yahoo Co-Founders Jerry Yang and David Filo, “I thought each should get $1 million.”

pony

While that was kind of kooky, this excerpt from my second book on AOL, titled “There Must Be a Pony in Here Somewhere: The AOL-Time Warner Debacle and the Quest for the Digital Future,” was much more serious.

At the time, late in 1999, Time Warner’s former CEO Jerry Levin was locked in difficult negotiations with AOL’s CEO Steve Case. When they reached a standstill, AOL seriously pondered acquiring eBay, while Time Warner (TWX) went looking for a link-up with Yahoo:

Here’s the excerpt from a section in the fourth chapter:

IF YOU CAN’T BE WITH THE ONE YOU LOVE

AOL and Time Warner wasted no time in trying to find alternatives to each other, scouring for as big a blockbuster as they could find across the interactive landscape.

Both were serious, but each also needed a stalking horse that might shake the other up enough to get back to the bargaining table.

Time Warner quickly turned to Yahoo.

Levin had met and been deeply impressed with a very young Jerry Yang, one of the co-founders of Yahoo, the spectacularly successful Internet directory and portal.

With the biggest Web audience, Yahoo had become a powerhouse, and it had done so with little of the rough behavior AOL was so well known for.

Its valuation had headed skyward too, making Yang a multi-billionaire in his first job after leaving college.

Yahoo was also, unlike most Internet companies, admirably profitable.

I had called Yang as soon as I got to California in 1997.

Aside from Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, eBay’s Meg Whitman and Real Network’s Rob Glaser, Yang was the Web icon most central to the whole boom.

He was also a pretty nice person—well spoken, courteous and with a reputation for being very easy to deal with.

He wasn’t always, though, and I often found myself engaged in little debates with him on whatever trend was sweeping across the landscape.

We almost always disagreed, and he liked to make little digs: “Kara, The Wall Street Journal’s circulation hasn’t grown in, like, a million years.”

But his were the kind of low-level obnoxious comments you’d hear from a brother. I hate to admit it, mostly because he would mock me, but I liked him a lot.

So did Levin. So he sent [CFO Rich] Bressler to meet with Yang and the Yahoo leadership, which included CEO Tim Koogle and his No. 2, Jeff Mallett.

The two sides had several meetings in late November and early December, according to those familiar with the talks, about what the companies could do together and how both sides saw the world evolving.

But Bressler was coy, and if he had a bigger idea the Yahoo team was hard pressed to figure it out.

“He was not specific at all,” one Yahoo executive told me. “We huddled and asked ourselves, ‘Are they serious, or are they just fishing?’”

The Yahoo team was torn, since they too were worried about the valuations and wondered if they could survive without a big media partner.

They also wanted to stay independent if possible, and didn’t want to venture so quickly outside the company’s core competency or outside the Net.

Doing a deal, even if meant that Yahoo would grab a major stake, meant selling the company and ending their mission.

Unlike AOL executives, the Yahoo team thought they would surely get lost in the shuffle, and that they were ill-suited to try to run a complex media company.

They were also dubious that old and new media were really natural partners.

“We were less grand in our approach,” said another executive. “And we were a fast-growing company, so we weren’t so sure we wanted to go slower.”

Time Warner was also reticent, because of the high valuation and also because Yahoo didn’t have a huge base of paying subscribers like AOL.

Being totally ad-supported, Yahoo was a much riskier proposition for Time Warner.

And soon enough, Levin would be put off by the same whiff of arrogance from the Yahoos that he’d picked up from Case.

At a dinner with Yang and Mallett at the elegant Upper East Side French bistro Le Refuge in Manhattan, Levin started lecturing the pair on Yahoo’s inflated currency, asking how its business was sustainable.

Mallett, unfamiliar with the subtleties of the media world dance and frustrated by Levin’s cryptic nature, shot back quickly and arrogantly.

“Why are you peppering us about our business when you’re the ones without any growth?” he snapped, then uttered the most annoying Web mantra of the era: “You just don’t get it.”

The remark, more confrontational than it needed to be, made Levin cringe. A few more meetings did take place, but the Yahoo option was pretty much off the table.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

AOL’s Big Give and Whirling Dervish Show!

AOL is turning into the Oprah Winfrey of the digital world, it seems, opening up Time Warner’s (TWX) checkbook to as many start-ups as it can.

oprah

Last month, it was $850 million in cash for social-networking site Bebo.

And, today, it’s a much smaller slug for Sphere, which started as a blog search engine and morphed into a widely distributed “contextually relevant” content engine, used on news and blog sites across the Web (and which AllThingsD uses on this site, in fact).

sphereaol

While one source said the price was upward of $25 million, sources at other companies to whom the San Francisco-based start-up also talked, including Google (GOOG), said Sphere was looking for more than that.

In any case, the sale is surely a win for CEO and Co-Founder of Sphere Tony Conrad, a longtime entrepreneur who also has been a VC at True Ventures, which also invested in Sphere.

Oh, it’s a mosh pit of jolly interbreeding in the Web 2.0 start-up world!

Sphere raised about $4.25 million from many investors, some of which included Radar Partners, Trident Capital and well-known Web players Scott Kurnit and Will Hearst.

AOL has surely shown a knack for snapping up small and innovative properties with clever technologies–the Truveo video search engine and communications app maker Userplane, for example–and has let them stay relatively intact, as it has promised it will do with Sphere.

But it also has not exactly leveraged any of them in a massive way either and still faces the problem of holding onto talent from those start-ups, as BoomTown reported here.

One hopes that AOL can do more with the more complex and elegant Sphere, which has deep relationships with major publishers all over the Web, including many Time Warner properties like Time.com and CNN.

It would be a shame for Sphere to fall into one of AOL’s deep holes there.

But perhaps not, given all the frenetic multitasking activity at AOL of late, including yesterday, when it also announced a deal in which its Platform-A online ad division would sell ads for Verizon (VZ) on the Web and for its mobile units.

Oh, and its top execs, CEO Randy Falco and President Ron Grant, whom AOL sources tell me have been AWOL of late, have also been ferreting away on a possible deal to be the alternative for Yahoo (YHOO) in its takeover battle with Microsoft (MSFT).

While Yahoo troops are not really happy with such a union, as BoomTown reported here, neither are some top Time Warner execs at the possibility that AOL might simply be being used as a stalking horse by Yahoo, in an effort to get Microsoft to up its bid.

“Do you think they’re using us?” joked one Time Warner exec to me yesterday, given the deal activity seemed to have slowed down this week.

Um, yes, of course!

While that wouldn’t be sporting, if Yahoo does end up going to Microsoft, it just means AOL will need to get a lot more energetic and do a lot more Spheres in the future to keep up.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Ted Leonsis Speaks!

BoomTown recently had lunch in Silicon Valley with Ted Leonsis, one of the most colorful, interesting and early of the modern Web’s entrepreneurs.

Leonsis is best known as the man who put the oomph into AOL during its glory days in the last century, when he joined CEO Steve Case in 1993 to grow the company into a behemoth that was able to essentially take over media giant Time Warner (TWX) in 2000.

That pairing did not go so well, as time did end up telling, and most of AOL’s senior ranks were gone from the company quickly.

That is, except for Leonsis, who stayed around AOL until the end of 2006 when he left the company to focus on his sports investments (See an interview with him about his Washington Capitals hockey team in The Wall Street Journal over the weekend here).

Leonsis has also recently teamed up with Case again to take on PayPal and the credit card industry–that shouldn’t be that hard at all!–with RevolutionMoney.

He talks about that venture and more, including the end of portals, the rise of distributed networks, the need for a new online ad paradigm and how techies need to focus more on “happiness and the quality of life.”

Yeah, that.

Here’s the video, in which Leonsis did not talk about the Yahoo (YHOO) deal, as this video was shot before talks between Yahoo and AOL heated up: