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All posts tagged ‘Microsoft’

Friday, May 9, 2008

Ask New D6 Speaker–Yahoo President Sue Decker–a Question!

Earlier this week, BoomTown posted our speaker list for the sixth edition of D: All Things Digital, which will take place in a few weeks–May 27 to 29, to be exact–in Carlsbad, Calif.

The annual gathering of tech and media luminaries was created and is run by my partner Walt Mossberg and me.

D6 tech and media speakers include: Microsoft Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer of Microsoft (MSFT); News Corp.’s (NWS) Rupert Murdoch; Jeff Bewkes of Time Warner (TWX); Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg of Facebook; Michael Dell of Dell Computer (DELL); IAC’s (IACI) Barry Diller; Amazon’s (AMZN) Jeff Bezos; Howard Stringer of Sony (SNE); and TiVo’s (TIVO) Tom Rogers.

Also: Tom Glocer of Thomson Reuters (TRI); Melinda Gates of the Gates Foundation; FCC Chairman Kevin Martin; Lowell McAdam of Verizon Wireless (VZ); Activision’s (ATVI) Robert Kotick; and former Microsoft tech guru Nathan Myhrvold of Intellectual Ventures.

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Just recently, we added Jerry Yang, CEO and co-founder of Yahoo (YHOO), and now he is being joined onstage at the conference by Yahoo President Sue Decker (pictured here in a lovely Wall Street Journal dot-drawing).

The pairing should make for a lively session, given all the heat around Yahoo of late, largely related to the scuttled attempt by Microsoft to buy the company.

What would you like to know about that and anything else about Yahoo?

As it so happens, you can ask!

While the conference is sold out, you can submit questions that you would like answered to Yang and Decker or any of the speakers via text or video. Walt and I will pick the best ones and let loose.

Ask early and often here!

In addition, the whole conference will be online at AllThingsD during the conference, via live blogs and reports of breaking news (and there will be breaking news, as there always is), along with video highlights.

And videos of all the interviews will be posted soon after it is over.

Thursday, May 8, 2008

Google’s Chilly Feet?

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All week, Yahoo’s investors have waited for the other shoe to drop–its much-hyped ad deal with Google (GOOG), in which Yahoo (YHOO) would outsource some of its online search-ad monetization business to the search giant.

But will that deal land with a thud instead?

Today, The Wall Street Journal reports that Google executives “are now divided over whether to pursue a search-advertising deal with Yahoo.”

Actually, that depends what you mean by divided, of course, and which Google execs are on which side.

According to sources BoomTown talked to at Google, while there is a lively debate going on at the Googleplex over the ramifications of such a deal, it is more likely than not that the search giant will cut some kind of limited and carefully crafted deal with Yahoo.

Sources said that the structure of the deal is critical, especially making it non-exclusive, limited and also low-key, given the scrutiny related to antitrust issues such an arrangement between the No. 1 and No. 2 companies in Web search will surely and deservedly bring from government regulators.

Some Google execs are very worried about calling further attention to the company in Washington, D.C., as the behemoth that it has actually become, something another behemoth–Microsoft (MSFT)–would surely love to have happen.

“Perceived concentration can be as bad as real concentration, which is not happening if we do a deal with Yahoo in the right way,” said one exec. “But that might be hard to explain clearly.”

While Google execs think that a properly structured deal will pass muster, they are also worried that it might not be worth the damage to the company’s image that might come with a bruising fight over the issue.

Google is still smarting over the brass-knuckle tactics Microsoft used in D.C. related to its DoubleClick deal, delaying its approval and causing Google a lot of money and time.

Already via that deal, its entry into the spectrum auction and its fight over copyright issues with media giant Viacom (VIA), Washington politicians and regulators can’t help but have the growing perception the Google is perhaps not as bouncy and fun and harmless as the company tries to project.

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In truth, Google is still bouncy and fun (see its founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin on exercise balls here).

But harmless? Not so much.

In a previous post, I argued that such a Yahoo-Google hookup is a bad idea for consumers, advertisers and anyone interested in a competitive landscape.

I wrote: “It is bad for advertisers, it is bad for consumers, it is bad for innovation, no matter how well-intentioned Google is.

And no matter how many flashy moves Google and Yahoo make, it is flat-out wrong for one player to so dominate such an important sector.”

In addition, some Google execs worry that since Yahoo is staying in the search business, while also outsourcing to Google, that it could gain valuable information about how Google operates.

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That’s a no-no at Google, which has what some in Silicon Valley call a “black box” image. In other words, please don’t pay attention to the man behind the curtain.

The less-grand deal, of course, will not be as good news for Yahoo shareholders, since it will not bring in the billion-dollar baby in terms of increased cash flow that some analysts had been bandying about.

And Yahoo is under pressure to come up with a lot of hits now that Microsoft has walked away–for now, at least. Now, it must go it alone, but much damaged by the takeover effort.

During the heat of the deal, such a link-up was seen as a coup for Google, which always likes to stick it to Microsoft.

And it was also seen as a way for Yahoo to better monetize its search business, especially since its own efforts have been so lagging behind Google in size, scope and yield.

And, more importantly, it gave Yahoo an effective weapon in fending off Microsoft’s unsolicited takeover bid.

Well, it worked, it seems, as the talks between Google and Yahoo were the bone that stuck in the throat of Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, much mentioned in his kiss-off letter to Yahoo last weekend.

Ballmer wrote, in part: “We regard with particular concern your apparent planning to respond to a ‘hostile’ bid by pursuing a new arrangement that would involve or lead to the outsourcing to Google of key paid Internet search terms offered by Yahoo today. In our view, such an arrangement with the dominant search provider would make an acquisition of Yahoo undesirable to us for a number of reasons.”

I doubt the aggressive Ballmer will let such a deal pass without a lot of heckling and, of course, much, much worse.

Please see this disclosure related to me and Google.

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Microsoft’s Project Granola–Facebook Tastier Than Yahoo?

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Project Granola?

Apparently, that’s the jokey nickname that’s been given by some in the company to Microsoft’s (MSFT) new online strategy, in the wake of its failed efforts to acquire Yahoo (YHOO) that ended in a big heap of mess this past weekend.

Now, sources tell BoomTown, it is all about “organic”–hence the image of a healthy handful of granola (except for the fact that, in my experience, nobody really likes granola after eating it as much as they think will before).

In any case, it is a word Microsoft folks have been slipping into the conversations with BoomTown over the past few days, so much so that I have started to feel like I was talking to execs from Whole Foods.

Now Microsoft’s greenness has gone public.

Case in point: Brian Hall, Windows Live General Manager, who trotted out the organic word in front of Merrill Lynch analysts yesterday, as reported by CNET’s Ina Fried, saying: “We’ve withdrawn the offer and moved on, and now are focused on how we grow as fast as possible organically.”

But what does organic mean exactly?

Two things, it seems.

First, stepping up spending on marketing, technology and research to try to find ways to differentiate from Google (GOOG) and get into the No. 2 spot now held by Yahoo.

Of course, that plan has not worked out so well as yet for the software giant, with Microsoft spending billions of dollars with no profits and little gain in online search or ad market share, while its archrival Google keeps growing stronger.

Even so, while in Korea today, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates backed Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer’s do-it-yourself path and his move to walk away from Yahoo.

“The key decisions on that will be made by Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, who took a look at Yahoo and decided that, on our own, he likes the stuff that we’re doing,” said Gates.

Gates also added what amounts to the second option for Microsoft. “I wouldn’t rule out some partnerships, but we don’t have anything imminent there,” he said.

While a return to Yahoo is a possibility, in fact, buying up Web 2.0 stars is likely to be a bigger focus of the company.

“Yahoo can twist,” said one source. “Microsoft has lots and lots of other options.”

According to sources close to the company, for example, Microsoft’s bankers had been putting out subtle signals to Facebook to see if it would be open to a full buyout.

Microsoft already invested $240 million in the hot social-networking site, an investment that gave Facebook its kooky $15 billion valuation.

And its execs have long told Facebook execs they wouldn’t mind a bigger bite–um, like all of it.

“We just wanted to gauge their interest, more than any real effort,” said another source, who expects Facebook to stick to its longish path to an eventual IPO.

But, as is no secret, Microsoft has selections all over Silicon Valley to help it improve its Internet chances.

Those would include buying bigger vertical sites in strong categories like autos or jobs or finance, and also scooping up smaller but fast-growing socially oriented sites like Digg, Meebo, Yelp or focusing on ad plays like Spot Runner (which just got another big dollop of funding).

There might even be some sense in spinning some of these and all Microsoft Web units off into a separate Internet company, which would be another way of integrating even bigger deals for properties like Time Warner’s (TWX) AOL or News Corp.’s (NWS) MySpace (which are longer shots, I think).

In a post I did in February right after Yahoo rebuffed Microsoft for the first time, I suggested such a course for the company.

As I wrote:

Here’s a list: LinkedIn. Digg. Flixster. Slide or RockYou. Veoh. WordPress. Sphere. Sugar. Some international stuff. And more.

Then, some noted, Microsoft would have to give massive financial incentives to those entrepreneurs to stay and thrive. Most importantly, it would have to keep its Redmond hands from interfering.

Now that would send shivers up the spine of Larry and Sergey.”

And that, most of all, would be more like icing on the cake for Microsoft and be much more tasty than a bowl full of granola.

And, as Martha Stewart says: It’s a good thing.

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Rumors of Jerry Yang’s Dethroning Are Greatly Exaggerated

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Off with the Yahoo CEO’s head!

OK, maybe not so much, at least today.

Indeed, according to many sources, Jerry Yang’s head still sits squarely on his neck.

And, moreover, his job as CEO has not been usurped by Yahoo (YHOO) Chairman Roy Bostock, who was allegedly–as one rumor went–authorized by Yahoo’s board, instead of Yang, to restart negotiations with Microsoft (MSFT).

(Which is kind of obvious when you actually think about it, given that Bostock is mired in this takeover collapse mess up to his own at-risk neck along with Yang. Bostock has been deeply involved all along and will likely continue to be.)

Thus, lots of smoke and little fire, contrary to rumor-based reports, like this one from TechCrunch–most of which seem to hang on the thinnest of threads (Where in the world is Yahoo board member Eric Hippeau?).

More importantly, even though they move share price, these rumors show almost no knowledge of how public company boards actually operate, which is to say with slug-like speed, even when under fire as Yahoo clearly is.

And if Yang were to go, I would guess it would be under his own steam or he’d be run out with Yahoo’s directors on a rail by angry shareholders.

Still, as a post yesterday of BoomTown’s book excerpt on the AOL Time Warner (TWX) debacle illustrates, even shoving aside a much-pilloried exec like former Chairman Steve Case, who presided over the merger disaster of all time, it took months and months and months and months and finally came well after the wheels fell off the bus there in a move made by Case and not his detractors.

And such a move to denude Yang, in the midst of the most trying time for the company, would make Yahoo’s board seem like particularly thickheaded morons–backing Yang strongly one day and throwing him overboard the next.

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That is not to say Yang has not lost a mountain of credibility with Wall Street, investors, his own employees and in the industry in general, over the way he has handled the situation with Microsoft. The fallout from the debacle has damaged him badly.

The reviews are in and it is pretty much one million angry thumbs down.

Unfortunately, Yahoo’s leadership team has not exactly distinguished itself in the aftermath with their public statements, whether it be Bostock’s fanciful musings that Yahoo had the support of shareholders or President Sue Decker’s ungracious dissing of disgruntled Yahoo employees or pretty much the bulk of the backpedaling Yang has done.

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And I don’t even know what to say about the excuse about the $33 offer not being written down as a problem by Yahoo execs, which makes them all move a little closer to Nearly Headless Nick in “Harry Potter,” in my estimation.

I do get their fervent need to explain themselves, especially in the face of such ferocious criticism.

But it has been so cringe-inducing to watch, that part of me wishes they would slink back into that cave Yang and his team have been living in all year long.

Obviously, Yang cannot and must now take the heat and find a way to clearly articulate a really good vision of what lies ahead for Yahoo.

That does not mean dangling the possibility of another deal with Microsoft to placate critics or pretending Yahoo wanted such a merger.

The very fact that Yang brought the painfully terse Yahoo Co-Founder and tech guru David Filo–who has fervently opposed a lot of Yahoo hookups in the past, like with eBay (EBAY) many years ago–with him to the key meeting last weekend with Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer was all I needed to know to determine that the company did not want to sell.

So, Yang and the board got what they wanted–for now, at least–which is a very painful dose of independence.

If they want that to mean going back to talk with Microsoft, Yahoo should stop playing games and do so with a minimal amount of jockeying.

If it means making a series of bold moves to focus and define its business, then Yahoo should do that and quickly.

And if Yang can’t lead or is still lonely–he said last year of the CEO job, “It is a lonely job in the sense that you have to make some of the tough calls”–he needs to step aside for a new leader of Yahoo.

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Because, even if Yang lives to fight another day, this much is clear: The clock is running down for him and his stewardship of Yahoo.

Yang is, as Dean Vernon Wormer of “Animal House” said so eloquently, on double secret probation.

So, if I were to predict, I would say six months without meaningful change is all he has.

And after that, I would imagine, is when the blade really starts really falling.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

A History Lesson for Jerry Yang: It Sticks in My Craw(ford)

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Yesterday, the powerful portfolio manager at Yahoo’s largest investor, Gordon Crawford (pictured here) of Capital Research Global Investors, a division of Capital Research & Management Co., made some very public and very harsh remarks directed at Yahoo (YHOO) CEO Jerry Yang for blowing the Microsoft (MSFT) deal.

All told, between two funds, Capital Research owns 16% of Yahoo. The fund run by Crawford, a legendary money manager and media power broker, holds 6% of that total. No surprise, then, that those funds took a big hit yesterday after the Microsoft takeover bid for Yahoo collapsed.

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So a lot of people paid attention yesterday when Crawford, in a high-profile interview with The Wall Street Journal, laid into Yang (pictured here) in such an in-your-face manner.

Said Crawford: “I’m extremely disappointed in Jerry Yang. I think he overplayed a weak hand.”

Crawford was fuming even more to the New York Times yesterday:

“I am extremely angry at Jerry Yang and at the so-called independent board. … I’m hoping that there is such an outpouring of outrage that the board is embarrassed into revisiting this thing, but I’m not optimistic about that.”

Uh-oh, because BoomTown has seen this story before.

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It was back in 2002 and the exec under Crawford’s withering gaze then was former AOL Time Warner (TWX) Chairman Steve Case (pictured here).

Jerry Yang might want to take notes, as the situations are a little too familiar to ignore.

Thus, here is a longish excerpt from my book, “There Must Be a Pony In Here Somewhere,” which shows just how active and relentless Crawford can be as an investor when he gets irked by execs who disappoint him:

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Gordon Crawford was still very, very angry.

Still piqued over the deteriorating situation at AOL Time Warner, he was now annoyed at himself too.

After laying into AOL Time Warner CFO Wayne Pace in early 2002 over what he perceived was dissembling by COO Bob Pittman and former CFO Mike Kelly in 2001, the powerful media investor at Capital Research and Management had decided over the spring to continue investing in the company.

He had visited the online unit and been heartened that executives were hard at work on a solution, even as the other divisions of the company were excelling and new CEO Dick Parsons had boosted morale.

Crawford calculated that the stock price had fallen well below the potential breakup value of the various parts of the company, and he had decided the stock of AOL Time Warner was being beaten down unnecessarily.

It now seemed a good buy. After all, how much worse could things get?

A lot, actually, as the online unit continued its downward spiral with new accounting allegations revealed over the summer and more signs that both subscriber numbers and ad revenue were in trouble.

Crawford would later kick himself for ignoring the signs he had flagged earlier.

“When there was one cockroach, one should always assume there are others,” said Crawford to me in 2003. “It was a stupid mistake.”

And Crawford wasn’t going to make another one, especially after he began hearing more and more angry voices from his network of sources across the divisions of AOL Time Warner.

Almost all the complaints were centered on one person: Steve Case.

After Levin and Pittman had left, it seemed, Case had begun to reassert himself at the company, visiting various divisions and doling out guidance on how to better achieve synergies.

It was advice that few divisional executives welcomed, especially coming from the man they held most responsible for the huge declines in the company fortunes, and who was also a constant reminder of how Time Warner had been snookered.

“To have to sit there and listen to him was unbearable for them,” said Crawford. “His continued presence was taking a terrible toll on morale.”

As the protests mounted, Crawford took it upon himself to gather key allies among the big shareholders–beginning with Ted Turner, who had now soured on Case much in the same way he had on Levin.

Crawford then contacted Malone, who had wanted to stay neutral but agreed to hear them out in an August visit to Denver. There, Crawford and Turner made their argument to Malone.

“Their view was that it was a disaster and no one could stand to have Case around,” recalled Malone. “The numbers lost were just too big, so he had to go.”

Lingering in the background, noted Malone, was the sense that Case had outsmarted everyone at Time Warner, a fact that further grated on them.

Since Crawford was headed east to New York for a series of meetings at various media concerns, including AOL Time Warner, the trio decided that he would be the one to deliver the news that Case should go.

He first met with Dick Parsons and Wayne Pace on on other topics at the company’s Rockefeller Center headquarters. During the meeting, Case joined the group and invited Crawford to his office when he was done for a private talk.

Case might have reconsidered the invitation when he heard Crawford’s definitive message: Resign.

Outlining his feedback from employees, Crawford explained that neither he nor other major shareholders thought Case could be an effective chairman any longer.

Case, sources familiar with the conversation said, was shocked by Crawford’s frank assessment and began immediately to argue with him.

Crawford was stunned when Case told him AOL was fine before the merger announcement and that he had no responsibility at the company after the deal was done.

It was not his fault that the economy had tanked. It was not his fault that both Levin and Pittman had proved to be unsuccessful leaders. It was not his fault that the Internet boom had turned to bust.

Case told Crawford he was not leaving.

The meeting ended with Crawford deeply troubled over Case’s finger pointing at everyone but himself, and the casting of himself as victim.

The gall of it rankled the longtime investor, who expected people to take responsibility for their errors. Yet Case hadn’t made even a slight effort at any kind of apology, claiming he either was not in control or not responsible.

What Crawford couldn’t grasp was that Case had no intention of saying he was sorry when he was not. To Case, offering a mea culpa would have been dishonest.

In addition, he felt it was more useful to figure out what to do next than wallow in blame. This was vintage Case, a behavior of moving on and compartmentalizing failure that had served him well for so long.

Case felt he had little authority to do anything, but a lot of responsibility to get it right.

Case called Crawford soon after he returned to his California office. “How can we patch things up,” asked Case.

But Crawford’s message was the same: “We can’t.”

Still, in the same conversation, Case asked Crawford to discuss the situation further in person when he’d be in Los Angeles on a visit to Warner Bros. in September.

He and Crawford, along with AOL’s Donn Davis and Capital Research and Management’s David Siminoff, decided to have lunch at a private executive dining room at the film studio in Burbank.

Case was nervous as they sat down, and he quickly said that he wanted to find a way to return to a productive relationship with Crawford.

“What do I have to do to become friends again?” Case joked.

He noted that he cared deeply about AOL Time Warner and wanted to rebuild value.

But then he again asserted that the blame for the failed merger was not his, since he wasn’t the one running the show at either AOL or AOL Time Warner.

To Case, this made sense–there were a lot of mistakes to go around, but all that mattered was where the company was now and what it should do to fix matters.

Case had no idea how badly he had misread Crawford, who wanted neither a friend nor excuses about leadership deficiencies nor lessons about the here and now.

Crawford understood that executives made mistakes, and he even thought it was OK to miss numbers—as long as you had the guts to admit that it was your fault and you didn’t point fingers.

Crawford told Case that he didn’t hate him and didn’t want to be accused of going behind Case’s back to get what he wanted as a major investor, as he began to talk to AOL Time Warner board members and shareholders about his concerns.

Crawford didn’t have a whole lot to add to what he had previously said.

And that was: Resign.

Case didn’t have much to add to his prior response, either: He would not.

…Crawford had been calling major investors since the late summer. Already, Crawford had Turner, Malone and many others on his side, including some AOL Time Warner board members.

As 2003 dawned, he was not going away in his quest to unseat Case and he probably held sway of at least one-third of AOL Time Warner shareholders.

“Case was an irritant, especially in a managerial role,” said Crawford. “He hurt the esprit de corps–you can’t be the general when your troops want to shoot you in the back.”

Another person close to Crawford offered a more descriptive take on the media investor’s motivations.

“He did not do it to embarrass Steve,” said this person. “Steve was just a festering boil at AOL that needed to be cauterized and removed.”

Note: Case resigned on Jan. 12, 2003.

Monday, May 5, 2008

EXCLUSIVE PHOTO: Jerry Yang Still Open to a Microsoft Deal

Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang said in an interview today that he’s still open to a deal with Microsoft.

Yang told Reuters, referring to Microsoft’s execs after they walked away from their takeover efforts Saturday: “If they have anything new to say, we would be open…I am more than willing to listen.”

After Yahoo’s precipitous stock drop today, this kind of backfilling is not a surprise, of course.

So, what more can BoomTown say, except that a picture is worth a thousand words?

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Yahoo Execs’ Reaction: “I Need Some Prozac”

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Be careful what you wish for, Jerry Yang.

Because after talking to a dozen Yahoo (YHOO) execs over the weekend after the Microsoft (MSFT) takeover deal cratered, most of whom are vice presidents or above, I have to say that your stock drop isn’t the worst thing you will have to deal with this morning when you pull up at work.

The worst? That’ll be the very hairy eyeballs you will be getting from a lot more of your employees, who are scared silly and a lot peeved by the limb many feel you have dragged them and their stock options out onto.

A major decline in the share price today was of prime concern to those I interviewed, with most hoping it would not dip below $20, based on the possibility of signing a long-rumored ad outsourcing deal with Google (GOOG) soon that could potentially keep the stock higher.

Also of concern: making too many sudden moves to placate Wall Street, like a possible alternative merger with AOL (TWX) (which the Yahoo troops still don’t seem to welcome).

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But causing particular dismay was the image of Yahoo’s top execs high-fiving after Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer walked away from the deal, an act reported in the New York Times this weekend after the deal was scotched.

“That was very telling, if it was true,” said one exec, who–like everyone–did not want to be named. “It shows a complete lack of connection to the balance of the company.”

And that was the nice quote!

Last night, Yang tried to placate employees a bit by posting an aptly named communication, “OK, so now what,” on Yahoo’s blog called (not so aptly) Yodel Anecdotal. He also took a slap at, presumably, Microsoft’s PR effort and the press coverage around the takeover attempt.

“By the way, I’m sure you’ve all read or watched the news about this. Frankly, there’s a lot of nonsense and misinformation in what’s being reported. Just so we are all clear, here’s what happened. The board took its mission very seriously. We clearly indicated to Microsoft that we were open to a transaction but only if it were on terms that fully recognized the value of Yahoo and was in the best interests of our stockholders.

“No one is celebrating about the outcome of these past three months… and no one should.”

So no high-fiving anymore, right? And, just so we are all clear, everyone at Yahoo I talked to sure isn’t celebrating.

So, here’s a sampling of the feelings, none of which were positive, even though BoomTown tried mightily to get someone to render a more sanguine spin on the proceedings:

“I am in shock.”

“I don’t know if we won or we lost. I think we lost.”

“I don’t love that it was Microsoft, but I think everyone thought $33 was a pretty good offer from a pretty good tech company.”

“Having to face my staff tomorrow will not be so much fun and I need some Prozac, since I don’t know what I can say to them about how our leadership is going to get our company going again.”

“Where’s the Jelly memo when you need it?”

“I can’t really talk to Jerry, since it is difficult to tell a founder tough things he probably needs to hear.”

And, “Do you think we need to do an intervention with Jerry and the board?”

I am not sure that would work, but most employees I talked to thought a new leader at the top of Yahoo would be a good idea to give employees a fresh start and a new outlook.

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Suggestions ranged from former Yahoo COO Dan Rosensweig to former Viacom (VIA) CEO Tom Freston to former eBay (EBAY) CEO Meg Whitman (pictured here).

“Jerry could become chairman, Sue [Decker] could remain president and then someone who can really charge in and make drastic change could be CEO,” suggested one exec. “Do you think Meg Whitman would do it?”

Um, no. But, ironically, Whitman was almost Yahoo CEO in a potential merger between Yahoo and eBay that never happened in the late 1990s.

As they will also say someday about 2008’s stillborn takeover of Yahoo by Microsoft: Could’ve, would’ve, should’ve.

But didn’t.

All Things Don’t-Blink-or-You’ll-Miss-It!

D

Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer of Microsoft (MSFT). News Corp.’s (NWS) Rupert Murdoch. Jeff Bewkes of Time Warner (TWX). Yahoo’s (YHOO) Jerry Yang.

All of them engaged in roiling Internet deal-making of late and all of them in just three weeks on the same stage–but not, thankfully, at the same time, or we’d need a professional negotiator–at the 6th D: All Things Digital conference in Carlsbad, Calif.

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The annual gathering of tech and media luminaries was created and is run by my amazing partner Walt Mossberg and me (see us here at D5) and will take place May 27 to 29.

The conference, as we describe it on our Web site, is “unlike any other executive conference.” What we mean by that is that we try to determine the next direction of the digital revolution via unscripted and informal, but pointed, conversations about the impact of digital technology with industry leaders.

In other words, Walt and I needling at the major players of the digital sector, until they give up the good stuff.

The other digital and media leaders coming? That would be: Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg of Facebook; Michael Dell of Dell Computer (DELL); IAC’s (IACI) Barry Diller; Amazon’s (AMZN) Jeff Bezos; Howard Stringer of Sony (SNE); and TiVo’s (TIVO) Tom Rogers.

Also: Tom Glocer of Thomson Reuters (TRI); Melinda Gates of the Gates Foundation; FCC Chairman Kevin Martin; Lowell McAdam of Verizon Wireless (VZ); Activision’s (ATVI) Robert Kotick; and former Microsoft tech guru and Nathan Myhrvold of Intellectual Ventures.

To say our timing is impeccably planned would be undeserved–we had no idea so much news related to all these companies and their leaders would break out, from the tough economy to takeover battles to court face-offs to mergers to trying to create a whole new way of reading.

Also, there will be some–as yet under wraps–amazing demos onstage too.

While the analog conference has been sold out for many months, the action will be on the AllThingsD.com site throughout the conference with round-the-clock live blogging by Digital Daily’s John Paczkowski, as well as video highlights from stage.

In addition, we’ll be pointing all over the Web to important tech and media news that breaks at D6.

And we will also stream the entire conference in the weeks after the conference takes place, so ATD’s audience can experience the whole thing, even if they cannot all attend.

But anyone’s questions can be there, though–this year, you can submit questions to any of the speakers via text or video that you would like answered. Walt and I will pick the best ones and let loose. Ask early and often here!

Walt and I are very excited for D6, even after last year, when we brought together industry legends Bill Gates and Apple’s Steve Jobs, for an historic joint interview.

At the time, Walt and I joked that we would not be able to top that amazing event (the video of the entire interview is below).

That interview was nearly unbeatable, but we also think that with the top-level interviewees we have assembled for D6, that it is game on.

Until then, here’s the Gates/Jobs video from D5:

MSFT, YHOO and GOOG: All You Need to Know in (Not So) Pretty Pictures

A stark visual of the situation–courtesy of The Wall Street Journal–with regard to the competitive Internet advertising and stock situation.

These two charts look at the performance of the major players–Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo (YHOO) and Google (GOOG) (and AOL [TWX] in the ad chart)–from 2004 to 2008.

What more can we say?

So we won’t.

adscene

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Also, here’s a link to a video of an appearance I made on ABC News last night about the danger of Google getting too powerful. (Naughty ABC does not allow embedding; here also is the text post.)

Please see this disclosure related to me and Google.

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Ballmer’s Out? When Pigs Fly!

pigfly

The blogosphere immediately jumped all over the inevitable meme that after the Yahoo (YHOO) deal fell apart, Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Steve Ballmer’s job was at risk.

What with the problems with the new Vista operating system and the general feeling that Microsoft’s Internet strategy is in shambles, the argument that Ballmer would be shown the door by an impatient board and replaced by former CEO and Founder Bill Gates was clear.

Actually, not so such much at all, but that has not stopped all the noise.

Maybe Ballmer should go and maybe not, but I would like some proof that’s not in evidence as yet.

Instead, this TechCrunch story was typical, full of assertions as easy to make with certainty, but just as easy to knock down.

First, it noted that Ballmer being the “big driver behind this deal at Microsoft–some would say to the point of obsession” had made him vulnerable to the board, which he was trying to impress with a “transformative” deal and that he was worried about being fired.

Actually, I would be worried if Ballmer was not obsessed, given that more than $40 billion is an awfully big bet.

And has anyone noticed how typically ineffectual most boards are (see Yahoo, see Time Warner [TWX], see them all)?

I doubt there is a major force on the board of threat to Ballmer, except Bill Gates, who has never shown the slightest inkling of turning on his longtime partner.

roadahead

Also, Gates himself fumbled with regards to the Web, and he even wrote a book about not doing that in 1995, called “The Road Ahead.”

Microsoft has bungled the Internet? It’s out of touch when it comes to the Web? Its troops have too many lifers who cannot innovate? Google (GOOG) has cleaned their clock? What!?

Of course, this has been news to exactly no one for about a decade now.

In any case, the Yahoo purchase was not the worst of ideas, if a bit obvious–although I have written several times that Microsoft should have bought up other Web 2.0 companies instead of Yahoo.

Both sides acted cloddishly, to be sure, and I am sure Microsoft’s board and execs are smarting a bit from misjudging this foray–I myself wonder how they did they not anticipate just how recalcitrant Yahoo would be.

But Microsoft’s withdrawal was clearly a better path than a hostile proxy fight.

So it did not work out (as yet)? So what? And if Microsoft stock rises tomorrow on the news, of course, all will be forgiven.

In addition, TechCrunch uses a source that is not exactly reliable, quoting “one secondhand account that leaked to us yesterday before the deal was called off,” who tells tales of Ballmer’s ranting and raving about how he wouldn’t let the board “crucify” him.

Ballmer can sometimes be a loudmouthed popinjay!? What ho?!?

Also news to exactly three people in the tech sector and they have been in an isolation tank since 1976.

More to the point, I got that exact anonymous email too, and it was credible and from someone with some good information.

But I felt I could not use the Ballmer info without more proof (also, I would need to know who this person is or find other non-anonymous-to-me people to bear its assertions out).

While compelling and sent in very good faith by an obviously smart person, as many of these types of emails are, I figured the lively emailer was probably from someone close to or even one of the many disgruntled employees of Microsoft who did not like the Yahoo deal.

There were lots of them, as BoomTown reported here, but I determined the emails were just wishful thinking.

But you be the judge!

Here’s two sections from the emails I got in their entirety related to Ballmer (with some minor edits to protect the sender) that TechCrunch clearly used verbatim, so you can see the whole thing rather than the pulled quotes:

Ballmer really does think his job is on the line if he doesn’t close the Yahoo deal, and soon. He’s worried after the fiasco that was the Windows Vista launch, then this, the Board will ask Gates to stay on while they find someone to replace him. Apparently this has caused Ballmer to be more of a tyrant than ususal, yelling and screaming at employees for almost no reason. Some Microsofties are secretly wishing the deal falls through so that Ballmer will get the axe and Microsoft will get new leadership.”

and

The particular incident… was that an exec made a comment about not having to worry about Ballmer anymore if this Yahoo deal falls through. He didn’t realize Ballmer was within earshot. Ballmer started yelling and screaming that this deal would go through and that the board wouldn’t be able to ‘crucify’ him over this. The scuttlebutt suggests that the board was ready to walk because they fear this deal is proving to be to big of a distraction, but Ballmer is obsessed with making it happen in order to protect his job. The board gave him one more week to get it done….many in Microsoft belive Gates will stay on if asked because even Gates realizes that Ballmer needs to go.”

Like I said: Wishful thinking.

This, of course, does not absolve Ballmer from having to come up with some very smart moves and fast to at least keep competitive with archrival Google and also figure out a way to protect its Windows software franchise in the wake of Google’s cloud computing effort.

But that is a longer and more vicious ground war that will go one for a long time.

Yahoo might be Ballmer’s Vietnam or Iraq, as still other bloggers are writing, but let’s keep in mind that the first went on for decades and the second, unfortunately, is still slogging on.

BoomTown Decodes Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer’s Letter to Yahoo (The Kiss-Off Edition)

Must we? We must!

Previously, BoomTown decoded the first mean Saturday letter, sent at the beginning of April by Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Steve Ballmer to Yahoo’s (YHOO) CEO Jerry Yang, in which Ballmer threatened to go hostile with his unsolicited takeover bid.

But this new one sent yesterday is a such a doozy that it cannot be ignored.

Thus, we wade in with really big boots.

Ballmer wrote: May 3, 2008

Mr. Jerry Yang

CEO and Chief Yahoo

Yahoo! Inc.

701 First Avenue

Sunnyvale, CA 94089

Dear Jerry:

Translation: Saturday, bloody Saturday. Redux!

Ballmer wrote: After over three months, we have reached the conclusion of the process regarding a possible combination of Microsoft and Yahoo.

Translation: It just occurred to me today that maybe you don’t like us and I am bereft. Despite copious evidence that I am, well, somewhat of a bully, do you know that I am really a very sensitive man and cry big sloppy tears when I am all by myself alone?

Ballmer wrote: I first want to convey my personal thanks to you, your management team, and Yahoo’s Board of Directors for your consideration of our proposal. I appreciate the time and attention all of you have given to this matter, and I especially appreciate the time that you have invested personally. I feel that our discussions this week have been particularly useful, providing me for the first time with real clarity on what is and is not possible.

sergeylarry

Translation: You like Google (GOOG) better, I see that now. All those times when I thought you were dealing with my unsolicited offer for Yahoo, all you were thinking of was Larry and Sergey, Larry and Sergey, Larry and Sergey.

I feel foolish now for throwing my tens of billions at you.

Ballmer wrote: I am disappointed that Yahoo has not moved toward accepting our offer. I first called you with our offer on Jan. 31 because I believed that a combination of our two companies would have created real value for our respective shareholders and would have provided consumers, publishers and advertisers with greater innovation and choice in the marketplace. Our decision to offer a 62% premium at that time reflected the strength of these convictions.

Translation: When I called you on Jan. 31, I thought you would jump at the chance to get a 62% premium. Was it too much? Should I have been more withholding?

Ballmer wrote: In our conversations this week, we conveyed our willingness to raise our offer to $33 per share, reflecting again our belief in this collective opportunity. This increase would have added approximately another $5 billion of value to your shareholders, compared to the current value of our initial offer. It also would have reflected a premium of over 70% compared to the price at which your stock closed on Jan. 31. Yet it has proven insufficient, as your final position insisted on Microsoft paying yet another $5 billion or more, or at least another $4 per share above our $33 offer.

aretha

Translation: And still, it’s not enough. As Miss Aretha Franklin sings: “A little respect (sock it to me, sock it to me, sock it to me, sock it to me)/Whoa, babe (just a little bit)/A little respect (just a little bit).

Oh, snap!

Ballmer wrote: Also, after giving this week’s conversations further thought, it is clear to me that it is not sensible for Microsoft to take our offer directly to your shareholders. This approach would necessarily involve a protracted proxy contest and eventually an exchange offer. Our discussions with you have led us to conclude that, in the interim, you would take steps that would make Yahoo! undesirable as an acquisition for Microsoft.

We regard with particular concern your apparent planning to respond to a “hostile” bid by pursuing a new arrangement that would involve or lead to the outsourcing to Google of key paid Internet search terms offered by Yahoo today. In our view, such an arrangement with the dominant search provider would make an acquisition of Yahoo undesirable to us for a number of reasons:

marbles

Translation: Marbles. Taking my. Home going.

And if you like Google so much, why don’t you marry it? (If you do, of course, my lobbyists in Washington will be at the ready to pounce!)

Ballmer wrote: – First, it would fundamentally undermine Yahoo’s own strategy and long-term viability by encouraging advertisers to use Google as opposed to your Panama paid search system. This would also fragment your search advertising and display advertising strategies and the ecosystem surrounding them. This would undermine the reliance on your display advertising business to fuel future growth.

– Given this, it would impair Yahoo’s ability to retain the talented engineers working on advertising systems that are important to our interest in a combination of our companies.

– In addition, it would raise a host of regulatory and legal problems that no acquirer, including Microsoft, would want to inherit. Among other things, this would consolidate market share with the already-dominant paid search provider in a manner that would reduce competition and choice in the marketplace.

– This would also effectively enable Google to set the prices for key search terms on both their and your search platforms and, in the process, raise prices charged to advertisers on Yahoo. In addition to whatever resulting legal problems, this seems unwise from a business perspective unless in fact one simply wishes to use this as a vehicle to exit the paid search business in favor of Google.

– It could foreclose any chance of a combination with any other search provider that is not already relying on Google’s search services.

Translation: Don’t you realize AdSense is only the beginning?

Don’t you see that Google will become self-aware in 2012 and start to build cybernetic organisms (living tissue over a metal endoskeleton) to send back and hunt down our future human leaders?

Don’t you know “Don’t Be Evil” is actually “Don’t Be Evil About Entertaining” and that it’s a…it’s a cookbook! (see below from “The Twilight Zone.”)

Ballmer wrote: Accordingly, your apparent plan to pursue such an arrangement in the event of a proxy contest or exchange offer leads me to the firm decision not to pursue such a path. Instead, I hereby formally withdraw Microsoft’s proposal to acquire Yahoo.

We will move forward and will continue to innovate and grow our business at Microsoft with the talented team we have in place and potentially through strategic transactions with other business partners.

Translation: If you prick us, do we not bleed? If you tickle us, do we not laugh? If you poison us, do we not die? And if you wrong Microsoft, shall we not revenge?

(But no tickling!)

Ballmer wrote: I still believe even today that our offer remains the only alternative put forward that provides your stockholders full and fair value for their shares. By failing to reach an agreement with us, you and your stockholders have left significant value on the table.

But clearly a deal is not to be.

Translation: In the immortal words of Mr. Terminator himself, Arnold Schwarzenegger, from his role in “Last Action Hero” as Hamlet:

“To be or not to be. Not to be!” (See video below.)

Ballmer wrote: Thank you again for the time we have spent together discussing this.

Sincerely yours,

/s/ Steven A. Ballmer

Steven A. Ballmer

Chief Executive Officer

Microsoft Corporation

Translation: Hasta la vista, Jerry! You won’t have Stevie to kick around anymore!

Saturday, May 3, 2008

Yahoo’s Nightmare Scenario: I’m From Google and I’m Here to Help!

Here’s what a top-notch source at Yahoo joked to me tonight, after Microsoft walked away from its unsolicited takeover bid to acquire the long-troubled Internet giant.

“Google is now officially our best friend.”

Oh no.

kaa

Instantly, an image popped into my brain– that of the slithery Kaa singing “Trust in Me (The Python Song)” to Mowgli from the Disney classic animated film, “The Jungle Book.”

“Trust in me, just in me
Shut your eyes and trust in me
You can sleep safe and sound
Knowing I am around

Slip into silent slumber
Sail on a silver mist
Slowly and surely your senses
Will cease to resist

Trust in me, just in me
Shut your eyes and trust in me.”

You know what happens next, of course. A big squeeze, but not the good kind.

While Yahoo (YHOO) might not have wanted to be acquired by Microsoft (MSFT), its alternative to goose its revenues by relying on Google (GOOG) in an outso