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	<title>BoomTown &#187; bubble</title>
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		<title>When GeoCities Grabbed the Web's Golden Ticket&#8211;A Trip Down Silicon-Valley-Has-No-Memory Lane</title>
		<link>http://kara.allthingsd.com/20090424/when-geocities-grabbed-the-webs-golden-ticket-a-trip-down-silicon-valley-has-no-memory-lane/</link>
		<comments>http://kara.allthingsd.com/20090424/when-geocities-grabbed-the-webs-golden-ticket-a-trip-down-silicon-valley-has-no-memory-lane/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Apr 2009 07:13:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kara Swisher</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kara.allthingsd.com/?p=12816</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In Web years, BoomTown is now officially 143 years old.

Why? Well, I was the one who got to write the big Page One piece in The Wall Street Journal after GeoCities was sold to Yahoo in January of 1999 for $5 billion in stock.

GeoCities was, in its way, the Facebook of its time. But, instead of "friends," its users were "homesteaders."

As Cher so eloquently sings: Those were the days my friend, we thought they'd never end.

Except they did. Yahoo announced yesterday that it was closing the GeoCities unit down, part of new CEO Carol Bartz's war against useless assets at the troubled company.

But let's take a stroll down memory lane, shall we?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2009/04/geocities-logo.gif"><img src="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2009/04/geocities-logo.gif" alt="geocities-logo" title="geocities-logo" width="110" height="100" class="alignright size-full wp-image-12817" /></a></p>
<p>In Web years, BoomTown is now officially 143 years old.</p>
<p>Why? Well, I was the one who got to write the big Page One piece in The Wall Street Journal after GeoCities was sold to Yahoo in January of 1999 for $5 billion in stock.</p>
<p>GeoCities was, in its way, the Facebook of its time.</p>
<p>But instead of &#8220;friends,&#8221; its users were &#8220;homesteaders,&#8221; since the Web then was a place to be pioneered and settled.</p>
<p>As Cher so eloquently sings: Those were the days my friend, we thought they&#8217;d never end.</p>
<p>Except they did. Yahoo (YHOO) announced yesterday that it was closing the GeoCities unit down, part of new CEO Carol Bartz&#8217;s war against useless assets at the troubled company.</p>
<p>But a full decade ago, the Yahoo-GeoCities transaction was a big, big deal, struck at the peak of the Web 1.0 bubble.</p>
<p>The move shook up the then-Internet landscape, in which Yahoo was the undisputed king.</p>
<p>The sector then had begun to rapidly consolidate, as stronger players snapped up weaker ones in a race for market share.</p>
<p>The Yahoo-GeoCities deal closely followed another deal in which At Home, a high-speed Internet access service, bought search and directory service Excite for stock valued at $6.7 billion. In another key deal at the time, then-independent America Online agreed to buy Netscape Communications for stock then worth $4.2 billion.</p>
<p>Of those then-dominant Web companies, only Yahoo and AOL&#8211;now a troubled unit of Time Warner (TWX)&#8211;survive relatively intact.</p>
<p>And, what exactly did Yahoo get for its giant payment back then? A money-losing, low-revenue company with a whole lot of users. </p>
<p>At the time of the purchase, the publicly-traded Marina Del Rey, Calif., company had reported that fourth-quarter sales increased to $7.5 million from $1.7 million a year earlier. But the company&#8217;s loss had also swelled, to $8.4 million from $3 million, in the year-earlier period.</p>
<p>Sound familiar to some current Web 2.0 stories? I thought so.</p>
<p>Another weird irony: One of GeoCities major investors was a venture firm called Flatiron Partners, whose principal, Jerry Colonna, was on the board.</p>
<p>And who was Colonna&#8217;s parter? Well, <a href="http://www.avc.com">Fred Wilson</a>, who has a different firm now called Union Square Ventures and is&#8211;<em>wait for it</em>&#8211;one the the major investors in the 2009 hotsy-totsy start-up, Twitter.</p>
<p>(You can read Wilson&#8217;s terrific take from the <a href="http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2009/04/geocities.html">VC perspective of the GeoCities experience here</a>.)</p>
<p>In other words, the more things change&#8230; Well, actually, they don&#8217;t change.</p>
<p>So, if you want to take an instructive trip down memory lane, here is my piece below, which <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB917500597920877000.html?mod=googlewsj">appeared in The Wall Street Journal on Jan. 29, 1999</a>:</p>
<blockquote class="memo"><p><strong>Those Who Tied Fortune to GeoCities Yell Yahoo! All the Way to the Bank</strong></p>
<p>By KARA SWISHER | Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL</p>
<p>Last spring, Thomas R. Evans was nervous about leaving his longtime job at the top of a powerful Manhattan media company for an Internet start-up near the beaches of Southern California. So he talked to his boss, real-estate and publishing tycoon Mort Zuckerman.</p>
<p>&#8220;I was wondering if this whole Internet thing was real and sustainable,&#8221; says Mr. Evans, then publisher of the Atlantic Monthly and U.S. News &#038; World Report. &#8220;I wanted his blessing in a way.&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>Virtual Payoff</strong></p>
<p>Mr. Evans got Mr. Zuckerman&#8217;s nod&#8211;and a lot more. You know the drill by now (though it may not be getting any easier to hear). He became chief executive officer of GeoCities , an electronic casbah of about 3.5 million Web sites, and helped lead its initial public offering last summer. Then Thursday, Yahoo! Inc. agreed to buy the young company for about $5 billion in stock. It means the value of Mr. Evans&#8217;s stock options soared by 65% Thursday to a dizzying $200 million.</p>
<p><strong>Yahoo! Agrees to Buy GeoCities in $5 Billion Stock Transaction</strong></p>
<p>That&#8217;s some kind of money for nine months&#8217; work. After you&#8217;re done banging your head on a wall, consider that members of the new financial elite in Silicon Valley are being created in less time than it takes for a kid to finish his first-grade year. That puts oil, real estate and finance magnates to shame. Mr. Zuckerman, for example, spent a lifetime building his $1 billion financial empire.</p>
<p>Asked how he was doing Thursday, Mr. Zuckerman says: &#8220;Not as good as Tom Evans.&#8221;</p>
<p>Mr. Evans, who commutes between GeoCities&#8217; Marina Del Rey, Calif., headquarters and his home in New Canaan, Conn., is quick to point out the ephemeral nature of his wealth. He must wait six years for his options to be fully vested. And his net worth could evaporate if Yahoo&#8217;s highflying stock sinks.</p>
<p>&#8220;It does not seem real, because it is not real, because this is based on the long term and is dependent on where this whole industry is going,&#8221; says Mr. Evans, 44 years old. &#8220;Anyone coming into this industry assumes a certain amount of risk because no one really knows how it is all going to turn out.&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>Litany of Lucre</strong></p>
<p>It has turned out well so far for the new moguls at GeoCities. According to public filings the company made last summer, the biggest individual winner is co-founder and Chairman David Bohnett, 42, who owns about three million shares outright, now worth $367 million, based on Yahoo&#8217;s closing price Thursday. Mr. Bohnett insists he is overlooking that bit of extra money. &#8220;I do not see this as a financial event,&#8221; he says. &#8220;And we did not start this company with money in mind.&#8221;</p>
<p>Chief Technical Officer John Rezner, 35, who worked nine years for aerospace company McDonnell Douglas Corp. before co-founding GeoCities, holds 827,000 shares worth $103 million.</p>
<p>The management team that came in with Mr. Evans last year&#8211;taking over from Mr. Bohnett to help with the IPO&#8211;is also well-situated. Chief Financial Officer Stephen Hansen, 42, who formerly held the same position at Universal Studios Hollywood, has options for about 600,000 shares of stock, which would be worth $74.7 million at current prices. Michael Barrett, 36, advertising vice president and former online executive with Walt Disney Co., has options for 280,000 shares, worth about $34.9 million.</p>
<p>There are, of course, all kinds of gnashing of teeth over whether the Internet entrepreneurs deserve such riches. But obtaining great wealth through luck or artful maneuvering is nothing new in American business history. Take the stock manipulators of the 1890s and the leveraged-buyout artists of the 1980s. It may be some consolation that GeoCities&#8217; founders can claim that they developed something that is used by many people. In its December Web-traffic report, research firm Media Metrix says the &#8220;GeoCities.com&#8221; Web site ranked third, behind America Online Inc. and Yahoo, with nearly 19 million different visitors.</p>
<p>Mr. Bohnett says the company was born from a &#8220;passion for giving people a chance to speak up.&#8221; Founded in 1994, GeoCities was one of the first Web-based communities, where users post individualized sites to express themselves.</p>
<p>Dubbed &#8220;homesteaders,&#8221; these customers create the bulk of the content on GeoCities. Their Web pages are organized into &#8220;neighborhoods&#8221; of personal interests and hobbies, such as personal finance or motorcycles, and monitored by a network of volunteers.</p>
<p>&#8220;My goal was to stake out a broader territory and create a community of interests, just in the same way Yahoo was helping people find their way around the Web,&#8221; says Mr. Bohnett, who led the company in a variety of top jobs, including chief financial officer, CEO and president. &#8220;Then we were going to monetize that base of users as the business model emerged.&#8221;</p>
<p>That model for profitability hasn&#8217;t yet arrived, in part because the company spends heavily to increase its market share. Thursday, it announced a net loss for last year of $18.2 million on revenue of $18.4 million.</p>
<p>Mr. Evans, a dark-haired man with a preppy demeanor and razor wit, has plenty of experience building businesses. He worked his way up in Mr. Zuckerman&#8217;s organization from sales and advertising jobs, and eventually served as president and publisher of several magazines.</p>
<p>After being approached several times about new-media positions, Mr. Evans says he decided to jump to GeoCities when the importance of the Internet became clear to him. &#8220;I think that by the time I really took a look at it, the whole sector had matured and gotten really interesting for those of us in the traditional media companies,&#8221; he says.</p>
<p>While Mr. Evans is loath to discuss the valuations of Internet companies, his former boss Mr. Zuckerman doesn&#8217;t dodge the opportunity to be philosophical about Web mania.</p>
<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s like they said in high school: &#8216;Boys will be boys and girls will be girls,&#8217;&#8221; Mr. Zuckerman says. &#8220;I don&#8217;t want to change anything, I just want to get in on it.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
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		<title>Kara Visits With PBS MediaShift Blogger Mark Glaser</title>
		<link>http://kara.allthingsd.com/20090218/kara-visits-with-pbs-mediashift-blogger-mark-glaser/</link>
		<comments>http://kara.allthingsd.com/20090218/kara-visits-with-pbs-mediashift-blogger-mark-glaser/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2009 17:01:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kara Swisher</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kara.allthingsd.com/?p=9921</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Recently, BoomTown had a lovely lunch with PBS new media blogger Mark Glaser.

Glaser is a longtime free-lance journalist whom I first noticed when he wrote a weekly column for the USC Annenberg School of Communication's Online Journalism Review, post-Web 1.0 bubble, as well as for the most excellent "Media Grok" daily email newsletter for the now-defunct Industry Standard back in the midst of the froth.

He was always able to cut through that with a clear-headed tone--while maintaining a respect for what was good about traditional journalism, as well as an excitement about the possibilities of new media. Here's a video interview I did with Glaser about where new media is today.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2009/02/mark-glaser-head.jpg"><img src="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2009/02/mark-glaser-head.jpg" alt="mark-glaser-head" title="mark-glaser-head" width="160" height="160" class="alignright size-full wp-image-9964" /></a></p>
<p>Recently, BoomTown had a lovely lunch with PBS new media blogger Mark Glaser (pictured here).</p>
<p>Glaser is a longtime free-lance journalist whom I first noticed when he wrote a weekly column for the USC Annenberg School of Communication&#8217;s Online Journalism Review, post-Web 1.0 bubble, as well as for the most excellent &#8220;Media Grok&#8221; daily email newsletter for the now-defunct Industry Standard back in the midst of the froth.</p>
<p>Glaser was always able to cut through that with a clear-headed tone&#8211;while maintaining a respect for what was good about traditional journalism, as well as an excitement about the possibilities of new media.</p>
<p>His <a href="http://www.pbs.org/mediashift/">MediaShift</a> site for PBS has recently gotten much beefed up, with interesting pieces about a range of digital media topics, from a cool map-timeline combo from the Washington Post to a new business venture called the Printed Blog to, of course, the impact of social media on journalism.</p>
<p>(There is also an interesting closely linked site called <a href="http://www.pbs.org/idealab/">&#8220;Idea Lab,&#8221;</a> which is a group blog about reinventing community news in the digital age.)</p>
<p>Glaser writes on the MediaShift blog about once a week and has about a dozen contributors.</p>
<p>A recent post&#8211;and thank goodness for some counter-programming in the blogosphere&#8211;was titled: <a href="http://www.pbs.org/mediashift/2009/01/warning-dependence-on-facebook-twitter-could-be-hazardous-to-your-business029.html">&#8220;Warning: Dependence on Facebook, Twitter Could Be Hazardous to Your Business.&#8221;</a></p>
<p>Here&#8217;s my video interview with him, on a range of issues facing the media in the interactive world (apparently, journalists don&#8217;t know <em>everything</em>!):</p>
<div class="video-wsj"><embed src="http://s.wsj.net/media/swf/microPlayer.swf" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" flashVars="videoGUID={13455874001}&playerid=4001&plyMediaEnabled=1&configURL=http://wsj.vo.llnwd.net/o28/players/&autoStart=false" base="http://s.wsj.net/media/swf/" name="microflashPlayer" width="320" height="240" seamlesstabbing="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" swLiveConnect="true" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"></embed><br />[ See post to watch video ]</div>
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		<title>Microsoft's Steve Ballmer Bubble-Pops at Democratic Policy Confab: The Full Speech</title>
		<link>http://kara.allthingsd.com/20090206/microsofts-steve-ballmer-talks-innovation-at-democratic-policy-confab-the-full-speech/</link>
		<comments>http://kara.allthingsd.com/20090206/microsofts-steve-ballmer-talks-innovation-at-democratic-policy-confab-the-full-speech/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Feb 2009 23:14:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kara Swisher</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kara.allthingsd.com/?p=9469</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer made an appearance at the three-day U.S. House of Representatives Democratic Caucus Retreat today to talk about innovation and, let's be real, the very bad economy and the impact on businesses like the tech giant.

The confab has already seen an appearance by President Barack Obama yesterday and one by Vice President Joe Biden this morning. Ballmer got the lunch spot today.

Ballmer's message was a bummer, appropriately: "In my view, what we now have will be a fundamental economic reset."

Here's his whole speech.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2009/01/11-02ballmer_lg.jpg"><img src="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2009/01/11-02ballmer_lg-241x300.jpg" alt="" title="STEVE BALLMER" width="241" height="300" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-8849" /></a></p>
<p>Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer made an appearance at the three-day U.S. House of Representatives Democratic Caucus Retreat today to talk about innovation and, let&#8217;s be real, the very bad economy and the impact on businesses like the tech giant.</p>
<p>Held at the Kingsmill Resort in Williamsburg, Va., the confab has already seen an appearance by President Barack Obama yesterday and one by Vice President Joe Biden this morning. Ballmer got the lunch spot.</p>
<p>The annual gathering is more crucial this year, given the pressure to pass the massive economic stimulus package to try to revive the moribund economy.</p>
<p>Ballmer was not reassuring. &#8220;The bubble has burst,&#8221; said Ballmer. &#8220;We can no longer rely on consumption by refinancing our homes or inexpensive money to fuel economic growth, and that&#8217;s certainly had a huge impact.&#8221;</p>
<p>And also: &#8220;In my view, what we now have will be a fundamental economic reset.&#8221;</p>
<p>Microsoft (MSFT) should know all about that. The powerful company<a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/20090122/steve-ballmers-entire-memo-to-the-microsoft-troops-about-layoffs-and-weak-results/"> recently announced weak earnings, a foggy outlook and layoffs of 5,000 employees</a>. </p>
<p>Here&#8217;s Ballmer&#8217;s speech to the group:</p>
<p><em>Well, I want to thank Jay, I want to thank the speaker and all of you for the opportunity to be here today and chat with you. It&#8217;s a real honor to have a chance to share some thoughts on the economy and on innovation, and hopefully spur some thoughts on how we all participate in restarting long term economic growth.</p>
<p>As Jay was telling my story, so to speak, I thought I&#8217;d put in one parenthetic that might be of interest. When I got to Microsoft and we were this tiny little company, we didn&#8217;t have the budget to put people up in hotels, so I lived with Bill. And every time I sat down, in every corner, nook and cranny of couches, tables, I&#8217;d find these little yellow pieces of paper with Bill&#8217;s writing that had a bunch of people&#8217;s names and companies&#8217; names and numbers.</p>
<p>So, finally&#8211;I think of myself as pretty good pattern matching. Actually I was sitting next to Congressman Frank, and we were both trying to see which of the six states that are going to be still bigger than North Carolina by 2015. So, we&#8217;re going through the pattern matching game, and I just couldn&#8217;t figure out what these numbers were.</p>
<p>So, finally I said to Bill, what is this? He says, Steve, I&#8217;m really always worried about whether we&#8217;re going to have enough cash to pay people. So, every night I write down everybody who works for us and how much we pay them, and every contract we have and how much it&#8217;s worth.  I&#8217;ve got to count the pennies tightly and that&#8217;s why you&#8217;re here now.</p>
<p>In this economic climate, whether you&#8217;re talking about businesses or consumers, everybody I think is having the little yellow sheets of paper out, and counting pennies pretty tightly.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m going to make one thing clear up-front: I&#8217;m not going to claim to be an economist. On the other hand, I think it&#8217;s sort of the responsibility of every businessperson to really form a model of what&#8217;s going on in the economy, if you&#8217;re going to provide proper stewardship to your business; big company, small company, it&#8217;s important to have a model of what&#8217;s going on, and certainly have been thinking a lot about the economy in the context of how we think about and plan for the future of Microsoft.</em></p>
<p><span id="more-9469"></span></p>
<p><em>For the past 25 years, the world has certainly enjoyed incredible, incredible global growth.  Average incomes around the world grew at unprecedented rates, millions of people moved from out of poverty into the middle class for the very first time.</p>
<p>I think that expansion was built on three things: innovation, globalization, and debt, increasing debt.</p>
<p>American technology was certainly at the heart of the innovation that played the central role in the process. The PC, the Internet, fiber optics: Those things were things that continue to keep America at the forefront of technology, and really at the lead of a growing global economy. </p>
<p>But over time, over the last period of time, the balance has really shifted. Instead of innovation and productivity driving growth, it&#8217;s really been unsustainable levels, particularly of private debt, that have been a key driver of economic growth. </p>
<p>The hard truth is this, in my opinion: The private sector of our economy has borrowed too much money, businesses and consumers alike, fueled by the a lot of different things, some notion that housing prices would go up forever, that you could borrow money cheaply.</p>
<p>I gave a speech at Stanford Business School a few years back, and I was talking, we&#8217;re a company that has been conservative, per the yellow pieces of paper. We like to keep cash. And a very smart Ph.D. in the audience puts his hand up and said, &#8220;Why don&#8217;t you borrow money?&#8221; I said, &#8220;I don&#8217;t like to borrow money.&#8221; He said, &#8220;But it&#8217;s so cheap; you&#8217;re depriving your shareholders.&#8221; I think it reminds us that essentially consumers and businesses alike have really borrowed too much money.</p>
<p>The bubble has burst. We can no longer rely on consumption by refinancing our homes or inexpensive money to fuel economic growth, and that&#8217;s certainly had a huge impact.</p>
<p>At our own place, what we think about PC sales, they are discretionary in most home budgets, the second, the third PC. Consumer electronics has that characteristic. Fifty percent of capital spending in this country is on information technology. Less capital, less spend on information technology. No sector will be immune.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a natural tendency to want to blame somebody for the economic crisis. In reality, I think you have to say we&#8217;ve all contributed to a culture of spending and private debt. And I distinguish private debt and government debt, because I think you have to be much more&#8211;the private sector has less ability to be thoughtful, and the government sector needs to be quite thoughtful. But there certainly has been too much use of debt.</p>
<p>At Microsoft, we&#8217;ve studied these developments. We believe this is a once-in-a-lifetime economic event, but it&#8217;s not unique frankly in U.S. history. The current situation looks a lot like several&#8211;not one but several previous cycles of long-term private sector debt. </p>
<p>In 1929, for example, just before the stock market crash, the private debt-to-GDP ratio was 160 percent. Last year, private sector debt as a percentage of the GDP: 300 percent; far more leverage. And you can see it&#8217;s been a steady increase basically since almost the end of World War II.</p>
<p>In my view, what we now have will be a fundamental economic reset. The economy is going to have to re-establish itself at a level of spending that reflects the real value of underlying assets before we can all start growing again at a healthy rate. </p>
<p>This may not be the thing that people really want to hear, but it&#8217;s certainly what we&#8217;re planning on, and it&#8217;s the truth on which we&#8217;re basing sort of our model, if you will, at Microsoft.</p>
<p>In our opinion, in order to reach the reset point, three things need to happen. First, the economy must be deleveraged. Private debt as a percentage of GDP has to be reduced. Restoring health to the nation&#8217;s financial system is a fundamental part of this.</p>
<p>Just for historical note, not only during the Depression, but actually in 1837 and in 1873 we had similar style resets in the economy. We actually have at least three historic periods that we can study in which similar phenomenon occurred. I think it was 1873 where even the state of Florida filed for Bankruptcy. So, we need to be thoughtful about being students I think of the history.</p>
<p>Second, confidence must be restored. The stimulus package, in my opinion, is vital. It will provide a cushion as we reach the reset point and it will help restart our economic engine. I certainly want to applaud the steps that the House has taken under the speaker&#8217;s leadership to quickly pass a strong stimulus package and to help shore up our financial institutions. </p>
<p>Third, America really has to return to growth that&#8217;s built on innovation and productivity, rather than leverage and private debt. That must happen.</p>
<p>The good news is that the U.S. economy is still the world leader in innovation. Our universities are the envy of the rest of the world. The American workforce is the best on the planet, and U.S. companies continue to drive technological progress in almost every industry. </p>
<p>But the time has come when we need to renew our innovation capacity. </p>
<p>We went back and studied what innovation companies did during the time of the Great Depression. One company that stands out, if you study the Depression, is RCA. </p>
<p>Now, the fact that RCA is not around today, this has nothing to do with their behavior during the Depression. There&#8217;s probably good learnings for a lot of technology companies in that. </p>
<p>But during the time of the Depression, RCA was probably the most broad-based R&#038;D-centric company in America. And while it cut costs certainly to survive the Depression, it never retreated from its commitment to core research and development. And as a result, after the Depression had ended, it really led and the U.S. led TV technology developments for the next 25 years. </p>
<p>That was good for RCA; it was good for America. </p>
<p>In my view, American companies aren&#8217;t going to be able to weather this economic downturn just by cutting costs either. You may have heard that Microsoft, our company has decided that we need to reduce 5,000 positions. What you may not know is that at the same time we&#8217;ve decided we&#8217;ll also create two to three thousand new jobs&#8211;mostly in the U.S.&#8211;as we continue to push into new areas that require investment. </p>
<p>In addition, despite the tough economy&#8211;I might even say because of the tough economy&#8211;our company will continue to invest more than $9 billion a year in R&#038;D, because we think it&#8217;s that R&#038;D spending that will cause us to remain strong.</p>
<p>People ask me, are you upbeat or not, and I say, about technology I&#8217;m super upbeat. The industry that we&#8217;re in, information technology, stands at the threshold of again a new revolution.</p>
<p>I joined Microsoft essentially for the PC revolution. The Internet revolution, we have the revolution of what I might call pervasive computing. Computers that are as thin and light as this on which you can have access to the world&#8217;s information will be kind of expected over the next five and 10 years.</p>
<p>So, being optimistic and positive about what technology can accomplish is very, very important.</p>
<p>If you take a look at it today, there is increasing ubiquity and power in the computing platforms.  A laptop today has more computer power than a mainframe did when I came to Microsoft. Mobile phones today are more powerful than the PCs that existed 10 or 12 years ago, at the start of the Internet era. </p>
<p>But over the next few years, we&#8217;ll continue to go into uncharted territory as many-core chipsets and devices become common, and we develop new ways to write programs to help us model the world&#8217;s climate, the world&#8217;s population, the world&#8217;s energy needs; all of that will be super possible.</p>
<p>This is going to lead to breakthrough applications, more intelligent, more aware of their environment, and where we can really help anticipate the information you need and the capabilities that you really want to have. </p>
<p>The next few years are going to see dramatic changes in the way you interact with technology:  touch, gestures, handwriting, speech recognition. Instead of telling my secretary to get me ready for my trip to the House Democratic Caucus, I&#8217;ll just type it in or speak it to my computer. It can look up, it turns out, who you all are, and where you&#8217;re all from, and it&#8217;s got all&#8211;it&#8217;s all out there. We just need to automate it in ways that real people can get access to information.</p>
<p>Some of this I&#8217;m sure sounds a bit like science fiction, but we&#8217;re rapidly nearing a time when interacting with technology really will be like interacting with people, which will make technology more accessible and really unlock the potential of computers to individuals and communities to help solve tough problems.   </p>
<p>A third trend, as I talked about, is screens and displays. Literally every wall, every tabletop, you&#8217;ll be able to roll up your computer, if you will, and put it in your purse or put it in your pocket. That&#8217;s what we have to look forward to.</p>
<p>All of these trends are going to help create a computing platform that extends from PCs and phones and TVs out into the massive storage and connectivity out in the Internet. </p>
<p>All of this will enable us to transcend the barriers that exist between technology today, and seamlessly connect people to the information and applications that you&#8217;re interested in, no matter where you are, no matter what kind of screen you have in front of us. </p>
<p>It&#8217;s very important. As the computing environment becomes richer and more pervasive, and more universally useful, it will enable citizens to be more active participants in our national economic recovery. If we do our jobs right, the computer revolution will help amplify our ability as individuals and as a nation to tackle the pressing problems of society: education, health care, energy independence; and at the same time, continue to enhance our productivity and economic competitiveness.  </p>
<p>They say GDP is consumption plus investment, plus government spending, plus productivity growth and innovation, and I&#8217;m very bullish on what will happen in our industry.</p>
<p>Imagine, for example, an intelligent energy system in your home that&#8217;s linked to a smart energy grid. With that infrastructure, your dishwasher and washing machine would know to run when electricity is cheapest. That kind of intelligence and control could really have a major impact on residential power consumption, which is a very large piece of energy consumption in this country.</p>
<p>There are similar scenarios in healthcare, where genomic research will open the door to personalized treatment; and in education for sure, where technology will enable all teachers to use the very best teaching methods and connect with students in new ways.</p>
<p>The truth though, we can barely guess what is possible. With the kinds of technologies we envision, other people, many people in many fields, fields of science and social science and many, many others, will come forth with an incredible outpouring of new ideas and innovation that will continue to expand the universe of what&#8217;s possible. So, the enablement not only of information technology and the productivity it brings directly, but other new forms of innovation I think will really be important for long term growth and prosperity across many, many fields of endeavor.</p>
<p>To harness this potential of this transformation, I think it&#8217;s going to take a lot more than investment by the private sector. We need investment and we need leadership by government as well. I don&#8217;t understand all of the issues and interests that you have to deal with. As I was sitting listening this morning, I understand more that there are hundreds of unwritten things that citizens just don&#8217;t really know about what it takes to catalyze these things to happen. But I would at least like to offer a couple suggestions on some things I think are important.</p>
<p>First, we really need the federal government to invest in human capital, in the citizens of our country.</p>
<p>I sit here and talk, talk, talk about innovation, but it&#8217;s people who turn ideas into positive and productive innovation. And in today&#8217;s knowledge-driven world, innovation will depend on people who are actually technologically sophisticated, have strong critical thinking skills, have expertise in math and science and engineering.</p>
<p>This is true not only for people who live in places like Seattle and work at places like Microsoft, but live in places like Detroit, where I grew up, and work for companies like Ford Motor Company, where my father worked when I was a child. I think this is going to be true for anyone, anywhere in this country, who hopes to earn a wage that can really properly support their family.</p>
<p>This means investment in education is critical, and I&#8217;m really encouraged by the very heavy emphasis on education that&#8217;s in the stimulus package. </p>
<p>We really need to transform math and science education in America. We need to improve teacher training, teacher quality. </p>
<p>I was talking earlier in the day with some folks about just how many of our math and science teachers don&#8217;t have the correct training and accreditation, and that stands in the way of us really breaking through.</p>
<p>For those who are already in the workforce, we need programs that provide ongoing education and training, so they can be successful in this knowledge-based economy. For those who are unemployed, we need new technical skills training to give those people a start back up the economic ladder. And we are going to need lifelong learning programs to keep people fresh, as innovation and technology continues to power the economy. </p>
<p>The second thing we need&#8211;and I&#8217;ll tell the Speaker this was written even before our meeting this morning&#8211;we need greater government investment in our nation&#8217;s science and technology infrastructure.</p>
<p>I came in, flew in red eye, was a little groggy this morning when I got here. I sat down with the speaker at 8:00 AM, and she woke me right up. She said there are four things I want you to make sure you understand are a priority: science, science, science, and science. I was awake by the end of the fourth science for sure, and I couldn&#8217;t agree more wholeheartedly.</p>
<p>Science and technology is the backbone for productivity and innovation; has been, not always information technology, but science and technology has been a driver of economic success. Government investment in science and engineering as a percentage of GDP is half, in this country, what it was in 1970, and it would be growing rapidly, particularly in countries in Asia, off a small base albeit, but in places like India and China and Korea the trend is the other direction.</p>
<p>We need to pursue breakthroughs over the coming years in green technology, alternative energy, bioengineering, parallel computing, quantum computing. Without greater government investment in the basic research, there is a danger that important advances will happen in other countries. This is truly I think not only an issue of competitiveness, but also in a sense of national security. Companies like ours and others can do our fair share in terms of funding of basic research, but government needs to take the lead.</p>
<p>This is also a moment when government should invest, I think, in information technology to help transform healthcare. We deliver information technology that we think can help create a connected health system that delivers predictive, preventive, and personalized care, a system that I think can improve the health of Americans and reduce the cost of health care in this country. </p>
<p>Government support for innovative development, rapid adoption of information technology in health care is important. I was talking to Congressman McDermott this morning. Government has a big role to play, including the fact that Medicare and Medicaid pay over 50 percent of all health. If Medicare and Medicaid want to take on some issues and use its authority to push health information standards, I&#8217;m sure this industry and this area of technology innovation can move even more quickly.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s always broadband. My number one encouragement to you is start with government itself. Every school, every hospital, every government building, is it wired, have we funded that infrastructure; very important.</p>
<p>This is a once-in-a-lifetime economic crisis. There is a lot of history around that, and frankly if you stop and think about it, 1837, &#8216;73, &#8216;29, 2008, it&#8217;s almost exactly a whole lifetime between each of the major economic difficulties that we face. But I think it&#8217;s also a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to think about our priorities again and make the investments that put us on the right foot.</p>
<p>In his inaugural address, President Obama said we need to assume more responsibility and make the hard decisions that have been postponed for too long. </p>
<p>The president&#8217;s remarks actually reminded me of something I heard a lot from my dad when I was growing up. My dad was an immigrant to this country. He came from Switzerland after World War II. He went and was an interpreter with the US military at the war trials in Nuremberg; came to Detroit with some of the soldiers he had met there, who sponsored him in this country; went to work at Ford Motor Company, was there for 30 years. Never finished high school never went to college, but he had a simple model: &#8220;If you&#8217;re going to do a job, do a job. If you&#8217;re not going to do a job, don&#8217;t do a job.”</p>
<p>You could say, okay, that&#8217;s probably a good thing to tell a 10-year-old, but what it really came to mean to me was that if you want to accomplish anything at all, you&#8217;ve got to be committed, you&#8217;ve got to be motivated, you&#8217;ve got to be tenacious, you&#8217;ve got to be smart. And, of course, that&#8217;s not really just my dad&#8217;s message to me and my sister as we were growing up; it&#8217;s really the essence of the American work ethic, and I think it&#8217;s been passed down to millions of American children every generation.</p>
<p>This country has what it takes to succeed. We have talent, we have technology, we&#8217;ve got the track record. We&#8217;ve got to be really honest about where we are. We&#8217;ve got to take the kind of bold steps that the vice president so well characterized in his remarks this morning, and we certainly have to roll up our sleeves and put ourselves back on the path of the kind of innovation that will drive the kind of economic success that I know we all want.</p>
<p>I thank you again for the opportunity. It&#8217;s been my pleasure.</em></p>
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		<title>To Sell or Not to Sell&#8211;That Was the Question for Twitter (But Was Its Answer Right?)</title>
		<link>http://kara.allthingsd.com/20081125/to-sell-or-not-to-sell-that-was-the-question-for-twitter-but-was-its-answer-right/</link>
		<comments>http://kara.allthingsd.com/20081125/to-sell-or-not-to-sell-that-was-the-question-for-twitter-but-was-its-answer-right/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Nov 2008 11:51:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kara Swisher</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[BoomTown]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kara.allthingsd.com/?p=7008</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There are two schools of thought about Twitter's decision not to sell itself to Facebook, as it did not in the fail-whale of a deal that BoomTown reported on yesterday.

Here's my favorite quote from an Internet exec who thought the microblogging service's decision to turn down $500 million in stock (and some cash) in the hot social-networking site was--how can I put this delicately?--stupid:

"If Twitter turned down 500m in stock, they should go see a shrink."

But, others disagreed, with another big Web player noting: "Why should Twitter hitch itself to Facebook's horse, when they don't have too?"]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2008/11/hamlet.jpg"><img src="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2008/11/hamlet-223x300.jpg" alt="" title="hamlet" width="223" height="300" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-7025" /></a></p>
<p>There are two schools of thought about Twitter&#8217;s decision not to sell itself to Facebook, as it did not in the <a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/20081124/when-twitter-met-facebook-the-acquisition-deal-that-fail-whaled/">fail-whale of a deal that BoomTown reported on</a> yesterday.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s my favorite quote from an Internet exec who thought the microblogging service&#8217;s decision to turn down $500 million in stock (and some cash) in the hot social-networking site was&#8211;<em>how can I put this delicately?</em>&#8211;stupid:</p>
<p>&#8220;If Twitter turned down 500m in stock, they should go see a shrink.&#8221;</p>
<p>But, others disagreed, with another big Web player noting: &#8220;Why should Twitter hitch itself to Facebook&#8217;s horse, when they don&#8217;t have to?&#8221;</p>
<p>Debate raged, depending on your point of view, with change-averse Twitter users mostly seeming relieved.</p>
<p>I am more toward the middle of the road, not knowing&#8211;who really does?&#8211;what was the best move. Thus, I would agree with a sentiment in an email sent to me yesterday from yet another digital guru:</p>
<p>&#8220;I think strategic buyers are going to be considered as options for all venture backed companies going forward. Additional rounds of financing are not the given they have been in the past few years. Liquidity is at a premium I&#8217;ve never seen before.&#8221;</p>
<p>Yes, indeed, as in all things, it always comes down to money and means and time.</p>
<p>In other words, Twitter has made the big bet that it has plenty of all of it, to transform itself into a real business and killer app before others catch up to it.</p>
<p>Right now, its business is deadly simple: A registered user logs in via the Internet or a mobile phone and answers the &#8220;What are you doing?&#8221; question the service asks in only 140 characters or fewer.</p>
<p>But that single feature has allowed the San Francisco-based Twitter to grow to about six million registrations, as reported in October, up 600 percent over the last year.</p>
<p>And that&#8217;s why Facebook&#8211;for all its powerful online social connections&#8211;has watched carefully as Twitter has raced past it in innovating in the &#8220;status update&#8221; arena.</p>
<p>And that is also why Facebook wanted to acquire it, to be able to check that important feature off its list, so it could move onto other issues (like finding an advertising model that pays off big).</p>
<p>According to many I spoke to about the now-ended discussions between Twitter and Facebook, both sides got along well, felt the fit was a manageable one and the union of the two made sense on many levels&#8211;and still does.</p>
<p>But, for Twitter, the chance to make a run for the prize was paramount, with a feeling among its investors and execs that the start-up should still take a shot at building its revenues&#8211;there are none right now&#8211;as well as it had done at building its growth.</p>
<p>As for Facebook, it apparently plans to keep the pedal to the metal too, in terms of growth and acquisitions&#8211;powering through these bad times economically, in order to emerge victorious when the tides turn.</p>
<p>In a <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_48/b4110084423202.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_news+%2B+analysis">prescient piece last week</a>, in fact, BusinessWeek&#8217;s Spencer Ante outlined the Facebook do-or-die strategy.</p>
<p>Wrote Ante:</p>
<p>&#8220;As gloom descends on Silicon Valley, most startups and giants are growing cautious and cutting back. But not Facebook. The social-networking Web site sees a bleak economy as all the more reason to press ahead with aggressive plans for growth. &#8216;This is not the time for tech companies to be cutting back; this is the time to be hitting the accelerator,&#8217; says Peter Thiel, a Facebook board member and investor.&#8221;</p>
<p>Of course, this was the very same Peter Thiel, who told me in a <a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/20071101/kara-visits-founders-funds-peter-thiel/">video interview a year ago</a> that &#8220;there was absolutely no bubble in technology.&#8221;</p>
<p>Well, with tech valuations now in the basement (as well as Thiel&#8217;s own hedge fund returns) from peaks last year, he&#8217;s right&#8211;that bubble has surely been popped.</p>
<p>As I said before, you just never know, a kind of equivocation that Hamlet spoke about so eloquently in his famous soliloquy in Act Three, Scene One, of William Shakespeare&#8217;s classic play.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s in text and video below&#8211;the Laurence Oliver version, of course!&#8211;because we all could use a little more insight than 140 characters or a post on a digital wall gives to any of us these days:</p>
<p><em>To be, or not to be: that is the question:<br />
Whether &#8217;tis nobler in the mind to suffer<br />
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,<br />
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,<br />
And by opposing end them? To die: to sleep;<br />
No more; and by a sleep to say we end<br />
The heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks<br />
That flesh is heir to, &#8217;tis a consummation<br />
Devoutly to be wish&#8217;d. To die, to sleep;<br />
To sleep: perchance to dream: ay, there&#8217;s the rub;<br />
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come<br />
When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,<br />
Must give us pause: there&#8217;s the respect<br />
That makes calamity of so long life;<br />
For who would bear the whips and scorns of time,<br />
The oppressor&#8217;s wrong, the proud man&#8217;s contumely,<br />
The pangs of despised love, the law&#8217;s delay,<br />
The insolence of office and the spurns<br />
That patient merit of the unworthy takes,<br />
When he himself might his quietus make<br />
With a bare bodkin? who would fardels bear,<br />
To grunt and sweat under a weary life,<br />
But that the dread of something after death,<br />
The undiscover&#8217;d country from whose bourn<br />
No traveller returns, puzzles the will<br />
And makes us rather bear those ills we have<br />
Than fly to others that we know not of?<br />
Thus conscience does make cowards of us all;<br />
And thus the native hue of resolution<br />
Is sicklied o&#8217;er with the pale cast of thought,<br />
And enterprises of great pith and moment<br />
With this regard their currents turn awry,<br />
And lose the name of action.</em></p>
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		<title>Angel Investor Ron Conway Speaks (About His Wise-Up-Silicon-Valley Missive)</title>
		<link>http://kara.allthingsd.com/20081014/angel-investor-ron-conway-speaks-about-his-wise-up-silicon-valley-missive/</link>
		<comments>http://kara.allthingsd.com/20081014/angel-investor-ron-conway-speaks-about-his-wise-up-silicon-valley-missive/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Oct 2008 14:45:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kara Swisher</dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Web 2.0]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kara.allthingsd.com/?p=5121</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Of course, the stock market had to come roaring back and it had to be extra sunny on the very day I was scheduled to have lunch with well-known Silicon Valley investor Ron Conway to talk about the worrisome state of the digital sector.

After all, it was Conway, as well as Sequoia Capital, who sent out a stink bomb of an email last week to his start-ups to deliver a simple message: The Web 2.0 party is over.

Say it ain't so, Ron!]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2008/10/ronaldconway.jpg"><img src="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2008/10/ronaldconway.jpg" alt="" title="ronaldconway" width="120" height="142" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-5020" /></a></p>
<p>Of course, the stock market had to come roaring back and it had to be extra sunny on the very day I was scheduled to have lunch with well-known Silicon Valley investor Ron Conway to talk about the worrisome state of the digital sector.</p>
<p>After all, it was Conway (pictured here), as well as Sequoia Capital, who <a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/20081009/irony-alert-bubble-making-venture-capitalists-start-popping-them/">sent out a stink bomb of an email last week to his start-ups</a> to deliver a simple message: The Web 2.0 party is over.</p>
<p>Said Conway to his entrepreneurial troops as the market was crashing down and smacking tech companies hard in the process:</p>
<p>&#8220;Unfortunately history DOES repeat itself but I hope we can learn from history and prevent the turmoil from occurring again. The message is simple. Raising capital will be much more difficult now &#8230; the name of the game in this environment in some respects is survival&#8211;survival until conditions change.&#8221;</p>
<p><em>Survival!?!</em> What ho? This from the man who is one of the more upbeat of Web investors! Who is one of the backers of Digg, Facebook, Twitter, Ning, Seesmic and 125 other Web 2.0 companies?</p>
<p>Ironically, our lunch yesterday was little more than a year after <a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/20070611/ron-conway-speaks-about-porches-and-porsches/">I had had another lunch with Conway</a>, where I also made a video, and during which we had a lively discussion about a range of topics, including the venture business (better than ever!), innovation (better than better than ever!), monetizing video content on the Web (best of all!) and more. </p>
<p>Yesterday, the news was not so happy, of course, although Conway did try to explain in more detail exactly what he meant in his most recent email, which echoed one he had also sent out when the last Internet bubble was popping a half-dozen years ago.</p>
<p>And that is: You better have a year&#8217;s worth of cash and a revenue model or you&#8217;re toast. </p>
<p>Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, he&#8217;s bullish!</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s the video (and below it, the one from June 2007, when things looked a little sunnier for Conway and Web 2.0):</p>
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		<title>Dear Web 2.0: You Might Want to Stop Believin'</title>
		<link>http://kara.allthingsd.com/20081009/dear-web-20-you-might-want-to-stop-believin/</link>
		<comments>http://kara.allthingsd.com/20081009/dear-web-20-you-might-want-to-stop-believin/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Oct 2008 21:14:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kara Swisher</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[BoomTown]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Dave Morin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Don't Stop Believin']]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Jessica Vascellaro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Journey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[karma]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Hudack]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ron Conway]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sam Lessin]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kara.allthingsd.com/?p=5062</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[All in good fun, right?

I am sure this will be the dumb-as-a-box-of-hammers reasoning this group of Web 2.0 folks gives for this odd video effort, doing a lip-synch romp on their group vacation in Cyprus to Journey's "Don't Stop Believin'," and then posting it for all to see on Vimeo.

It is titled: "Twenty world Internet citizens met in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in October of 2008 for a week of reflections on life, love, and the Internet."

Um, kids, here's a reflection: While you swim in that pricey infinity pool in your luxury villa, Silicon Valley is tanking all over the place. You might want to check your email and see if Sequoia Capital or Ron Conway has cost-cutted you out of a job!]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>All in good fun, <em>right</em>?</p>
<p>I am sure this will be the dumb-as-a-box-of-hammers reasoning this group of Web 2.0 folks gives for this odd video effort, doing a lip-synch romp on their group vacation in Cyprus to Journey&#8217;s &#8220;Don&#8217;t Stop Believin&#8217;,&#8221; and then <a href="http://vimeo.com/1920191?pg=embed&#038;sec=1920191">posting it for all to see on Vimeo</a>.</p>
<p>It is titled: &#8220;20 world Internet citizens met in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in October of 2008 for a week of reflections on life, love, and the Internet.&#8221;</p>
<p>Um, kids, here&#8217;s a reflection: While you swim in that pricey infinity pool in your luxury villa, Silicon Valley is tanking all over the place. You might want to check your email and see if <a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/20081009/irony-alert-bubble-making-venture-capitalists-start-popping-them/">Sequoia Capital or Ron Conway has cost-cutted you out of a job!</a></p>
<p>Oh, sorry, BoomTown&#8217;s karma is so negative, isn&#8217;t I?</p>
<p>But the video gave me flashbacks to heedless-partying-until-the-bomb-fell attitude before the popping of the Web 1.0 bubble. It obviously still burns.</p>
<p>The group rollicking includes Blip.tv&#8217;s Mike Hudack, Facebook&#8217;s Dave Morin, Drop.io&#8217;s Sam Lessin and&#8211;<em>well, um, eek, bad idea, awkward!</em>&#8211;tech reporter Jessica Vascellaro of The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<p>Here is the video:</p>
<p>UPDATE: Apparently, the makers of the video have made it private on Vimeo and blocked it on YouTube, likely due to the reaction to it, <a href="http://valleywag.com/5062424/its-the-end-of-web-20-as-we-know-it">but you can see it here</a>.</p>
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		<title>Tech Stocks Off the Deep End: But Ignore the Panic</title>
		<link>http://kara.allthingsd.com/20081006/tech-stocks-off-the-deep-end-but-ignore-the-panic/</link>
		<comments>http://kara.allthingsd.com/20081006/tech-stocks-off-the-deep-end-but-ignore-the-panic/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Oct 2008 21:13:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kara Swisher</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Apple]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[valuation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kara.allthingsd.com/?p=4856</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Just as there is a tendency to inanely cheerlead the tech sector valuations on the way up, there is inevitably the equally ridiculous overreaction to the downward slide going on right now for digital companies.

Thus, while by no means the weakest sector of the economy, a range of tech stocks got hammered today in the markets, getting dragged down with the market at large as investors continued to fret about a sustained worldwide recession that government bailouts could not prevent.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2008/10/kevin-bacon1.jpg"><img src="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2008/10/kevin-bacon1.jpg" alt="" title="kevin-bacon1" width="250" height="125" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-4868" /></a></p>
<p>Just as there is a tendency to inanely cheerlead the tech sector valuations on the way up, there is inevitably the equally ridiculous overreaction to <a href="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20081006/looks-like-somebodys-got-a-case-of-the-mondays/">the downward slide going on right now for digital companies</a>.</p>
<p>Thus, while by no means the weakest sector of the economy, a range of tech stocks got hammered today in the markets, getting dragged down with the market at large as investors continued to fret about a sustained worldwide recession that government bailouts could not prevent.</p>
<p>Consider, after a week of getting socked, even more blows:</p>
<p>Yahoo (YHOO) closed at $15.19, down about 5 percent or 81 cents.</p>
<p>Google (GOOG) closed at $369.37, down just under 5 percent or $17.54.</p>
<p>Microsoft (MSFT) closed at $24.91, down 5.4 percent or $1.41.</p>
<p>eBay (EBAY) closed at $17.89, down 5.5 percent or $1.05.</p>
<p>Interestingly, the company with the most consumer exposure, Apple (AAPL), fell below $90, before closing at  $98.14, up 1.1 percent or $1.07.</p>
<p>Now, there&#8217;s no question some of this tech carnage was due to the sector riding higher than most and worries about future results. Analysts are cutting estimates across the industry, in anticipation of weaker advertising and international markets.</p>
<p>At this point, as much as <a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/20080929/dear-web-20-it-is-the-economy-stupid-part-2/">BoomTown has warned about the impact of the financial crisis on Silicon Valley</a>, the meltdown in tech shares is beginning to feel a little undeserved and overdone.</p>
<p>After all, does anyone doubt most advertising will move online? Or that tech will not continue to permeate all sectors of our society and economy in the decades ahead? Or that digital companies, for all their fattening up of late, are not the most adept at adapting themselves to leaner times?</p>
<p>After all, everyone in tech did learn a thing or two from the bursting of the last bubble, which was entirely appropriate.</p>
<p>This time, while the industry had begun to party like it was 1999, the more recent expansion&#8211;aside from the lofty valuations for start-ups&#8211;was done in a way that will make it much easier to cut back.</p>
<p>I kind of feel like I might be channeling Chip Diller, the annoying ROTC cadet in &#8220;Animal House&#8221; (played by Kevin Bacon), with his famous line, &#8220;All is well, remain calm,&#8221; even as all hell was breaking loose around him (see video below).</p>
<p>But with a little rejiggering, it&#8217;s still the right prescription for the months ahead. In the short term, all is <em>not</em> well.</p>
<p>Nonetheless: Remain calm.</p>
<p><object width="380" height="313"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/1ntbfVQvHt8&#038;hl=en&#038;fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/1ntbfVQvHt8&#038;hl=en&#038;fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="380" height="313"></embed></object></p>
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		<title>Dear Web 2.0: It's Still the Economy, Stupid!</title>
		<link>http://kara.allthingsd.com/20080915/dear-web-20-its-the-economy-stupid/</link>
		<comments>http://kara.allthingsd.com/20080915/dear-web-20-its-the-economy-stupid/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Sep 2008 15:15:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kara Swisher</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[BoomTown]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kara.allthingsd.com/?p=3781</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week, one of the things that struck me about the coverage of the two main tech conferences devoted to start-ups, DEMOfall and TechCrunch50, was the almost complete lack of discussion--or, more appropriately, worry--about the troubled economy.

This, even though the subprime mortgage crisis remains in full swing, along with the continuing turmoil around the stability of Wall Street financial firms, as well as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Also, let's not forget those sky-high gas prices.

The situation has worsened this past weekend with more dangerous developments in the financial sector, which eventually means that the popular Web 2.0 maxim of "growth before profits" is also in for a very bumpy ride.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2008/09/13420264_150x150_front.jpg"><img src="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2008/09/13420264_150x150_front.jpg" alt="" title="13420264_150x150_front" width="200" height="200" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-3784" /></a></p>
<p>Last week, one of the things that struck me about the coverage of the two main tech conferences devoted to start-ups, DEMOfall and TechCrunch50, was the almost complete lack of discussion&#8211;or, more appropriately, worry&#8211;about the troubled economy.</p>
<p>This, even though the subprime mortgage crisis remains in full swing, along with the continuing turmoil around the stability of Wall Street financial firms, as well as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Also, let&#8217;s not forget those sky-high gas prices.</p>
<p>Still, one entrepreneur after another got up and spun stories of companies built on fancy new ad models to come or the more hidden premise that they would get bought by a bigger fish up the food chain like Google (GOOG) or Microsoft (MSFT).</p>
<p>But <a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/20080904/look-out-below-but-yahoos-battered-stock-isnt-the-only-weak-one-in-tech/">as I wrote last week</a>, all those stocks are suffering, and those companies are likely to be retrenching rather than expanding.</p>
<p>In fact, at an <a href="http://news.cnet.com/8301-17939_109-10035901-2.html">interview with Internet entrepreneur and investor Peter Thiel</a> at TC50, he called Web companies undervalued. (See my <a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/20071101/kara-visits-founders-funds-peter-thiel/">video interview with Thiel here last November</a>, in which he says a lot of the same stuff.)</p>
<p>As he told me almost a year ago, Thiel repeated his contention that the technology sector was still <em>not</em> in a bubble.</p>
<p>Well, perhaps not, but that&#8217;s actually because most companies in Web 2.0&#8211;despite their massive valuations over the last few years&#8211;aren&#8217;t going to have the chance get frothy and light enough to become so poppable.</p>
<p>Instead, most will likely fizzle away quietly, with no exits in sight as the economy weakens and puts a vise grip on companies that cannot survive the very tough financial road ahead. </p>
<p>That means the popular Web 2.0 maxim of &#8220;growth before profits&#8221; is in for a very bumpy ride.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s going to be especially true after this weekend&#8217;s latest round of bad news&#8211;the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the sale of Merrill Lynch, the impending crisis at banks like Washington Mutual.</p>
<p>And with more to come, I could not help but remember the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It's_the_economy,_stupid">well-known political phrase used in the 1992 presidential race</a> by the Clinton team: It&#8217;s the economy, stupid.</p>
<p>And that&#8217;s true even here in Silicon Valley, where the sun always seems to shine, even as the clouds gather.</p>
<p>(Also, <a href="http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=10024">here is a very good piece on the topic by CNET&#8217;s Larry Dignan</a> on some more details of the impact on tech firms, specifically on selling products to financial firms.)</p>
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