In one week, Yahoo will report its third-quarter earnings, after the market closes.

And so far, its stock is showing signs that investors are hoping for better days ahead for the Internet giant.

Shares are up 8.5 percent for the month, almost 13 percent for the last three months and almost 39 percent since the beginning of the year.

While that’s not the rocket ship Google (GOOG) has been on–the search giant’s stock is up 70 percent since January, which includes a big boost recently on expectations of a strong earnings report tomorrow–it’s clear investors are hoping an improvement in the online advertising market will boost Yahoo’s fortunes.

Wall Street is expecting $1.12 billion in net revenue and seven cents in earnings per share from Yahoo (YHOO)–and a better performance than that could boost the stock.

In fact, a pair of bullish analyst reports that came out today predicted just that.

Broadpoint AmTech analyst Benjamin Schachter raised his price target to $21 a share, noting that after the search and online advertising partnership deal closes, Yahoo “should be meaningfully smaller and leaner, but should also be a significantly more profitable company.”

And Benchmark Co. analyst Clayton Moran moved Yahoo from hold to buy, with a price target of $20.

But a string of recent exec departures in Yahoo’s advertising units are making some within the company’s ranks slightly worried.

The departures include Jim Schinella, the company’s SVP for corporate partnerships, in September.

And yesterday, Glam Media announced that it had nabbed Josh Jacobs as SVP of Brand Advertising Products & Marketing. At Yahoo, Jacobs was a key exec in its display ad platform unit.

Many inside the company expect more departures in the ad and engineering arena at Yahoo, pointing out that many big stock packages given to hold onto talent are about to vest.

In addition, once Yahoo’s search and online advertising partnership with Microsoft (MSFT) is approved, as it is likely to be by the end of the year, hundreds of Yahoo engineers will get the choice of moving to Microsoft.

Some will, of course, but some simply do not want to go and many Silicon Valley companies and start-ups BoomTown spoke to report seeing more resumes recently from Yahoo staff.

There is little Microsoft can do to stop possible leakage of tech talent from Yahoo until the deal is approved, since the companies cannot do any integration until it is.

Perhaps worst of all, there seems to be nothing Yahoo can do to stifle its proclivity to yodel, which I begged Yahoo execs to forgo in its recent $100 million “It’s Y!ou” marketing push.

No such luck!

Yesterday, Yahoo launched its online Yodel Studio (no, I am not kidding), where you can record your own yodel in various music genres, like, um, rap.

Yahoo held a kickoff event in New York’s Time Square yesterday–however did I manage to miss it, since I was in Manhattan?–with a passel of celebrity yodelers like Jewel, as well as one in London’s Covent Garden.

Today, there is a yodel event in Mumbai, India. Bollywood yodeling anyone?

Here is a link to the famous Yahoo yodel, by the way, if you are so inclined.

And here is a video of the Times Square event, and also the very memorable Yahoo commercial of Taylor Ware, after she won the Yahoo National Yodel Challenge contest in 2003.

Some things never change (even if they should!).

Yesterday, BoomTown wrote about the status of the regulatory approval for the Microsoft-Yahoo search and online advertising pact.

While none of the key constituencies wanted to comment or make predictions about the outcome of the government scrutiny, most seem to agree that the MicroHoo partnership is more likely to be approved than not.

One of the few vocal critics of the deal, though, is Jeffrey Chester, the executive director of the Center for Digital Democracy, a public interest group.

CDD, along with several other consumer groups, recently sent a letter to the Justice Department’s antitrust head, Christine Varney, expressing concern about the control and collection of consumer data in the deal.

CDD also has been querying Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo (YHOO) directly about the data collection and privacy implications of the deal, which is something the government should be doing.

So, to further get a glimpse into MicroHoo’s arguments, here is a set of important questions Chester asked then that were answered in a memo by the pair:

What specific data collection, interactive ad technologies and targeting applications will be used for search under the 10 year deal?

Today, Yahoo! collects data about Yahoo! visitors to our search product and uses that information to deliver products and to customize advertising and content, among other purposes described in its Privacy Policy. Microsoft and Yahoo! have each adopted industry-leading privacy practices with respect to search. For instance, under Yahoo!’s global data retention policy, Yahoo! anonymizes user log data within 90 days with limited exceptions for fraud, security and legal obligations. For search specifically, Yahoo! will convey certain data to Microsoft to fulfill a user’s search request. This includes the query and the IP address. Microsoft will anonymize this data sent to it by Yahoo! in accordance with Yahoo!’s announced data retention policies. Microsoft is only permitted to use search data that it obtains under the deal to operate and improve its search services and for no other purpose.

Will Yahoo’s behavioral targeting technologies for search still be used?

Yahoo! does not currently employ behavioral targeting in search. [Ed. note: Not completely true; see press release from Yahoo here on new targeting capabilities.]

Will any of Yahoo’s targeting apparatus be incorporated in any way with Microsoft Advertising, including with Bing?

No. This deal is limited to search, and as noted above, Yahoo! does not employ behavioral targeting in search.

Will search ads be sold by either Yahoo or Microsoft that provide for multimedia results, such as video?

Video advertising is still a small and growing area and as such, it’s impossible to predict what video ads in any form, including what a potential video search ad, could look like several years from now.

How may this deal affect the Yahoo! Newspaper Consortium?

The partnership Yahoo! has with the newspapers is broad and includes everything from content distribution, advertising cross sales, and technology platform development, to the display of Y! sponsored search listings on the newspapers’ own Web sites. Yahoo! Does not see the Microsoft deal as having an immediate impact on its newspaper consortium dealings. However, by combining its platform with Microsoft’s, Yahoo! and Microsoft will be in a position to offer the Newspaper Consortium and other web publishers more competitive bids for search syndication deals than either company can offer separately.

What ad research and development will be shared or done in common?

It is premature to speculate about the exact research that will be done, but the increased scale that will result from this search deal is expected to significantly enhance the ability to conduct meaningful research in a timely manner.

What rationale was used to embrace the 3 month data retention time? Why isn’t a shorter retention time adopted?

Yahoo! did an extensive analysis and review of all our data systems globally in 2008. Yahoo! arrived at 90 days retention as the right timeframe for most of its log file data that allows it to deliver the industry-leading products and services its users expect from them, but that also minimizes the duration of time Yahoo! holds data in identifiable form. It’s important to note that some of Yahoo!’s log file systems retain identifiable data for less than 90 days but none will hold data longer except for a limited number of specific systems dedicated to fraud and abuse and to meet legal obligations.

How do you envision Yahoo remaining viable when it no longer has a meaningful independent search service, given the need to have a coordinated search/display environment for digital marketing?

Future growth in online marketing will come from shifting spend from offline advertising to the online world. Offline advertising spend is disproportionately held by the largest advertisers and they control the vast majority of ad spend. Yahoo! has the leading position in branded advertising and Yahoo! also serves the needs for the growing market of performance advertising. So this deal with Microsoft enables Yahoo! to deliver a fully integrated solution that meets marketers’ needs at scale. Through this deal, Yahoo! retains a revenue stream in search without incurring the costs of developing a search platform or engine. Yahoo! will get paid an 88% TAC rate while eliminating significant expenses, enabling Yahoo! to invest more heavily in other areas of focus: amazing audience properties, web products, enhanced display advertising capabilities, and fantastic mobile experiences.

Unlike the gripping back and forth of the fight over Yahoogle last year, the approval process for the search and online advertising partnership of Microsoft and Yahoo is chugging along slowly but surely as the Justice Department has deepened its investigation by reaching out to a broad range of publishers, advertisers, public interest groups and rivals for comment recently.

A month ago, the government agency lobbed in a “second request” for information about the deal the pair struck earlier this summer.

This kind of regulatory review is typical in deals of this magnitude.

But so far, there is no significant external challenge to the MicroHoo deal, even–according to many sources BoomTown has interviewed over the last week–from Google, the likeliest company to try to scuttle or, at the very least, slow down the deal.

“Is it worth fighting a big fight over?” asked one person close to the thinking of Google (GOOG). “Not really.”

Said another source, surveying the state of play: “It’s eh, kind of inevitable and not that interesting on a lot of levels.”

While none of the key constituencies wanted to comment or make predictions about the outcome of the regulatory scrutiny, most seem to agree that MicroHoo is more likely to be approved than not.

At the time the partnership was announced in July, execs at both Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo (YHOO) said a lot of investigation was likely from Justice, although they said they were also confident that it would be allowed go through by year’s end.

So far, several sources said, the key issue raised by the Justice Department has been whether the argument Microsoft and Yahoo are making–that they need scale to compete with Google–is valid or not.

Currently, Google has just under 70 percent of the search market in the U.S., while Microsoft and Yahoo together have about 28 percent.

Google has been arguing that huge scale is not necessary to be successful in the search ad market, although its execs have often said bigger is better when it comes to natural search and in spurring more clicks on ads.

Meanwhile, Microsoft and Yahoo have said they need all the firepower they can muster together to battle Google’s hegemony.

In a related concern, some regulators are worried–as they were when Google and Yahoo were trying to get approval for a similar deal last year–that any hookup of big players in the market will effectively take Yahoo out of the search business.

“With only three big players, going to two is not desirable to the government,” said one source. “Yahoo has to reassure everyone that it is focused on a sustainable business model beyond search.”

In a blog post yesterday, in fact, Yahoo said it was committed to search innovation.

In any case, most expect another month of investigation at least, although the lack of any loud voice in opposition could shorten that time frame.

And, added some sources, unlike with Yahoogle, there is not likely to be any kind of Congressional hearing on the deal.

Nonetheless, Microsoft, Yahoo and Google remain concerned that deals like this will lead to more focus on privacy issues, specifically around behavioral targeting.

That would be more a matter for legislators or the Federal Trade Commission and would probably come well after the deal is cleared and as part of a bigger topic.

Rep. Rick Boucher (D., Va.), who chairs the Subcommittee on Communications, Technology and the Internet, said he will consider consumer privacy legislation this fall.

Boucher led hearings on the subject this summer, and there might be more, especially as Web companies garner a lot of personal information from consumers with little oversight of what they do with those data.

If Boucher does call for hearings, he might want to replay this particularly boneheaded (but funny!) video from Yahoo’s U.K. ad staff, which classifies various Yahoo customer types–such as “disco-dancing heart surgeons from Nantwich”–as farm animals:

Please see this disclosure related to me and Google.

According to sources close to the situation, AOL has been busy selecting the board for the company, which is still set to spin itself off by year’s end–even as it slows down a decision on a new search deal with either current partner Google or a more emboldened Microsoft.

AOL is using Spencer Stuart in the search for directors, led by well-known headhunter Jim Citrin, sources said, and the company has already settled on several outside candidates.

The final board is likely to have about 10 members, and up to a dozen.

At least one of those seats will go to CEO Tim Armstrong, with one or two more claimed by its current corporate owner, Time Warner (TWX).

AOL and Time Warner made their own wish list of potential directors earlier this year, but some people are also lobbying the company to join the board.

BoomTown is working on discovering all those names, but sources added that the candidates being looked at are a mix of personalities culled from the media, advertising and Web worlds.

Among the key attributes: More presumably fast-forward and innovative Silicon Valley types that can help burnish AOL’s tarnished tech cred.

Here are some of my picks:

Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg, Guitar Hero CEO Dan Rosensweig, WordPress founder Matt Mullenweg (actually, AOL should buy the start-up), eBay (EBAY) CEO John Donahoe, LinkedIn Chairman Reid Hoffman or CEO Jeff Weiner, Juniper Networks (JNPR) CEO Kevin Johnson, Netflix (NFLX) CEO Reed Hastings, and former AOL iconic exec Ted Leonsis.

And, just for fun, News Corp. (NWS) digital don (and ousted former AOL head) Jon Miller or former Yahoo President Sue Decker.

(I might also add former AOL exec, Netscape co-founder and all-around entrepreneur Marc Andreessen, but if he joins another tech/Web board, he is going to get splinters.)

That’s because Armstrong has set a strategy centered around the turbocharging of online content, powered by a more flexible platform and paid for by goosing AOL’s graphical advertising business.

This puts the online icon–once a powerhouse and now not so much, having operated inside Time Warner since its merger early in this decade–in more serious competition with Yahoo (YHOO).

Yahoo now dominates content on the Web, with powerful news, sports and finance sites, and has recently been trying to reinvigorate its brand. This week, it launched a new marketing campaign with the motto, “It’s Y!ou.”

Yahoo also recently struck a search technology and advertising partnership with Microsoft (MSFT), which has now aimed its efforts at AOL.

According to sources, Microsoft execs have been aggressively courting AOL to switch its search business from Google (GOOG).

The search behemoth has long been AOL’s partner in what sources at both companies said has been a productive and lucrative relationship.

Armstrong is also a former top exec at Google, which many at the company hope will further cement its chances.

And while the renewal of that deal does not officially need to be struck until late next year, sources add that Google has already prepared and offered what it considers an attractive new deal for AOL.

But, much to Google’s chagrin, with a focus on the spinoff and preparations for some more cost-cutting in the months ahead, AOL has decided not to accept it yet and is not likely to anytime soon.

While hedging the situation in a recent video interview with MediaMemo’s Peter Kafka, Armstrong has also recently met with Microsoft execs, sources said, who have discussed a number of partnership options with him, including a tighter relationship with its MSN content properties.

“There’s no need to rush, especially since there is already a lot on AOL’s plate,” said one source close to the situation. “And, since it has options, AOL is going to take time considering them.”

(For more on Armstrong’s thinking, here’s a link to another video interview I did with Armstrong while both of us were in Germany today, in which he talked about the ad market and AOL’s strategy, but was cagey about being more specific.)

Please see this disclosure related to me and Google.

Another high-ranking Yahoo exec is leaving–this time, Jim Schinella, the company’s SVP for corporate partnerships.

Sources said that Schinella (pictured here) announced the move internally recently, telling staff he would stay on until the end of the year.

Located in New York, he has been focused on big Yahoo (YHOO) partners such as big telecom firms like Verizon (VZ).

Schinella joined Yahoo in 2003 and left in 2005, after becoming its global VP of business development.

He returned in 2007, as Yahoo said at the time, to focus on “proactively identifying strategic partnership opportunities that align with Yahoo!’s brand and leverage the company’s broad product offerings.”

Although it is not a particular surprise, because Microsoft and Yahoo execs had previously said they expected as much, the Justice Department lobbed in a “second request” for information about the search and online advertising partnership the pair struck earlier this summer.

A Microsoft spokesman confirmed the request to BoomTown.

“As expected Microsoft and Yahoo received an additional request about the agreement, as we said when this agreement was announced,” said Microsoft’s Jack Evans. “We anticipated this deal would be closely reviewed and we continue to be hopeful that it will be approved by early 2010.”

Simply put, the Justice Department wants more information about the 10-year deal and will do more investigation before approving it–or not.

This kind of review is typical in deals of this magnitude, although it is unlikely to be as fraught as Yahoo’s attempt last year to form a similar partnership with Google.

That deal collapsed after regulators indicated that they would oppose the arrangement, which caused Google to pull out.

At the time the partnership was announced in July, execs at both Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo (YHOO) said a lot of scrutiny was likely from Justice, although they were also confident that it would go through.

And, indeed, there seem to be no major objections from publishers and advertisers, as was the case with Yahoogle, even though a privacy group has raised some concerns.

Even Google (GOOG) has been unusually quiet about the deal, perhaps because its nearly 70 percent of the search market makes it the behemoth. Together, Yahoo and Microsoft have close to a 30 percent market share.

The deal must also be approved by European regulators, according to the terms negotiated by Yahoo and Microsoft. But since Google’s share there is even higher, roadblocks seem unlikely.

Meanwhile, according to numerous sources, Microsoft and Yahoo are separately working on transition plans in order to move quickly once it gains regulatory approval.

While they cannot work together as yet at a detailed level, Microsoft will eventually be absorbing hundreds of Yahoo search engineers as part of the deal.

So as we all wait in breathless anticipation, enjoy this hysterical video version of the famous gruel scene in the movie, “Oliver,” with the lines speeded up and then slowed down:

After all the investor hubbub over the oh-no-they-didn’t deal between Yahoo and Microsoft starts to die down a bit, the pair are now embarking on the path that is the only way toward proving the efficacy of them joining together.

That would be getting a variety of state, federal and international regulators to say yes to the wide-ranging online advertising and search arrangement they announced last week so they can start making it work.

According to sources at both companies, a variety of filings will be made this week, including one to the Securities and Exchange Commission that should provide more details of the partnership.

When it was unveiled last Wednesday, the companies said Microsoft (MSFT) will run search technology for the two, while Yahoo (YHOO) will sell the premium search advertising.

That SEC filing could answer a number of questions some still have about the deal, such as whether there is a large break-up fee that Microsoft would pay Yahoo in case the deal is scuttled.

That’s just the outcome that Microsoft and Yahoo are trying to avoid.

“We think of it as an outreach effort to explain how we are creating a strong No. 2 to Google,” said one source close to the situation. “The main goal will be to show that a better competitor in the marketplace is a good thing.”

While the companies are prepping for opposition from Google (GOOG), sources close to the thinking at the dominant search company said it is more likely to be muted and indirect.

That’s especially true since a MicroHoo makes Google–currently under a lot more government scrutiny than ever before–look like less of a bully.

Thus, Google’s tactics would entail less direct statements and more pointing out the discrepancies between what Microsoft said when Google tried to get approval for a search deal with Yahoo last year and what it argues now.

“They will probably not be that obvious, but they will be there still,” said Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to me, in an off-hand remark at the software giant’s Financial Analyst Meeting last week.

It’s a game of legal chicken that Ballmer knows well.

Already, for example, Microsoft and Yahoo execs have been aggressively reaching out to major publishers and advertisers to get their staunch support.

That included calls immediately after the deal was announced last Wednesday to such execs as Martin Sorrell of the WPP Group (WPPGY) and Jeff Zucker, CEO of NBC Universal, a unit of GE (GE).

In Washington, D.C., both companies have legions of lawyers to try to make sure the Justice Department, which will review the case due to its antitrust implications, has all the information it might need.

And, more to the point, they want to avoid the debacle that took place when Yahoo and Google tried to get approval for their failed deal last year.

That deal was ended by Google after it became clear that Justice was going to fight it by arguing that top search companies hooking up hurt competition and stifled innovation.

In addition, there might be Congressional scrutiny, with possible hearings, similar to those held when the Yahoogle deal was pending, such as in the Senate Judiciary Antitrust Subcommittee.

And, of course, there are actually independent groups concerned and they have also been in contact with regulators.

“There are questions that must be answered regarding the collection and sharing of consumer data by the two companies,” said Jeff Chester, executive director of the Center for Digital Democracy, a D.C.-based group that works to promote consumer privacy and protection online, in a statement last week. “While the rationale for the deal is to provide some much needed competition to Google (and income for Yahoo), the further consolidation of the global digital advertising system should be a concern to Internet users, privacy advocates, online marketers, and competition regulators.”

Sources said Microsoft and Yahoo also plan to petition regulators in the European Union this week, which is likely to be most concerned about privacy issues involved in their union.

They will also be doing the same in other key countries worldwide, such as Korea, Taiwan and Brazil.

And, finally, given how involved state attorneys general became in beaching the Yahoo deal to partner with Google, they also will be starting outreach to key states, such as California, where Silicon Valley-based Yahoo is headquartered.

“Once again, it will be the Lawyer Employment Act of 2009,” joked one person close to the deal. “At least, that shows there is some economic benefit to this deal already.”

While we all wait in breathless regulatory anticipation, here are interviews I did at last year’s Senate hearings on Yahoogle, with lawyers from Google (David Drummond), Microsoft (Brad Smith) and Yahoo (Mike Callahan).

Incredibly, they are the very same lawyers who will be pretzeling themselves in entirely different shapes than they pretzeled themselves a year ago.

I would expect nothing less!

Here’s the video:

]]> http://kara.allthingsd.com/20090804/yahoo-microsoft-regulatory-filings-begin-this-week-let-the-legal-game-playing-begin/feed/ 0 http://kara.allthingsd.com/20090804/microsofts-point-man-on-search-satya-nadella-speaks-its-a-game-of-scale/ http://kara.allthingsd.com/20090804/microsofts-point-man-on-search-satya-nadella-speaks-its-a-game-of-scale/#comments Tue, 04 Aug 2009 07:33:31 +0000 Kara Swisher http://kara.allthingsd.com/?p=16939

Another Microsoft exec BoomTown spoke to–while in Seattle last week–was Satya Nadella, SVP of Research and Development at its Online Services division, also known as the man in charge of search and online advertising technology for the just-struck partnership with Yahoo.

Nadella came to Microsoft in 1992 from Sun Microsystems (JAVA)–much like another company lifer and key dealmaker in the Yahoo partnership, Yusuf Mehdi, whom I also interviewed via video here.

After all that time, though, Nadella is probably facing his biggest challenge yet.

Because how the search business of Microsoft (MSFT) evolves, improves and, most of all, out-innovates–especially in the face of heretofore withering competition from search behemoth Google (GOOG)–is going to be a big factor in the success of the deal with Yahoo (YHOO).

In fact, the Silicon Valley Internet giant has essentially put its search technology eggs in the software company’s work-in-progress basket.

Now the Microsoft team must make a series of innovative tech leaps in order to grab more market share beyond what the pair bring to the table together.

Nadella, who was one of the key execs involved in the deal, has to make sure the companies hold onto top talent until the partnership is approved, while continuing to keep up the momentum of its new Bing search offering.

No pressure, Satya!

Nadella does acknowledge in the video interview here that Microsoft has has not been able to catch up with Google and talks about how that might now be possible.

Watch:

]]> http://kara.allthingsd.com/20090804/microsofts-point-man-on-search-satya-nadella-speaks-its-a-game-of-scale/feed/ 0 http://kara.allthingsd.com/20090803/microsofts-yusuf-mehdi-speaks-yahoo-has-a-fantastic-opportunity/ http://kara.allthingsd.com/20090803/microsofts-yusuf-mehdi-speaks-yahoo-has-a-fantastic-opportunity/#comments Mon, 03 Aug 2009 20:12:38 +0000 Kara Swisher http://kara.allthingsd.com/?p=16911

BoomTown visited Microsoft HQ in Redmond, Wash., last week, right after the online advertising and search deal with Yahoo was struck.

While there, I interviewed a passel of Microsoft (MSFT) execs, including Online Audience Business SVP Yusuf Mehdi, who has been a key player in the many–and mostly disastrous–attempts that the software giant has made to form some sort of alliance with Yahoo (YHOO) over the years.

It finally stuck for Mehdi, who has been with Microsoft for closing in on two decades (although he still kind of looks like a teenager).

In this video interview with me, he talks about the deal, defending it as a “win-win”–what else is he going to say?–for both companies.

While Wall Street threw raspberries at the Silicon Valley icon for giving away its search technology business without an adequate payoff, Microsoft got kudos for grabbing a large piece of share that it could use in its ongoing battle with archrival Google (GOOG).

And that much is true–now, it is execs like Mehdi who are charged with using the new purchase to try to unseat Google’s dominance in search, which is a little bit of a harder job than doing a Yahoo deal.

Here’s the video:

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